Often cold and cynical in the face of the Russian invasion that Ukraine has suffered for almost two years and an admitted admirer of Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump could seal the fate of kyiv shortly after taking office, on January 20, 2025. During the presidential campaign, the Republican promised to put an end to hostilities “in twenty-four hours”.
“Even if he is accustomed to this type of exaggeration, I have no doubt that he will try to resolve the problem very quickly”says François Heisbourg, special advisor to the Foundation for Strategic Research and author ofA World Without America (Editions Odile Jacob). Regular critic of the significant American military aid paid to Ukraine, Donald Trump has this powerful asset to force Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, to negotiate peace.
For its part, Russia affirmed that it “will work with the new administration” Trump while striving to“achieve all set goals” a Ukraine. “Our conditions remain unchanged and are well known in Washington”also indicated the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“We should expect Trump and Putin to work together”
Volodymyr Zelensky said he hoped the former businessman's re-election could “bring Ukraine closer to a just peace” and be the opportunity to “strengthen our strategic partnership” with the United States. In reality, “Putin and Trump, who has recently shown a lack of empathy towards Ukraine and Zelensky, can be expected to work together to impose peace on terms acceptable to Russia »predicted the advisor.
In detail, “Moscow is making the ouster of Volodymyr Zelensky a condition for stopping hostilities”explains François Heisbourg. In February 2022, Vladimir Putin launched his invasion hoping to take kyiv quickly, in order to overthrow his government. The Ukrainian army prevented him from doing so.
Ukrainian regions ceded?
Russia also annexed four regions of Ukraine in September 2022, after the “yes” victory in referendums described as “simulacra” by the Ukrainians and their allies. That kyiv agrees to cede these four regions to Russia, in addition to Crimea, annexed in 2014, “is not negotiable as part of an agreement”judge François Heisbourg.
Some European leaders may be forced to begin a change of course in order to align with American policy. Until now a loyal supporter of Ukraine and resolutely Atlanticist, the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, could for example review or moderate her position. The far-right woman “posed herself as Donald Trump’s privileged interlocutornotes the advisor. What is certain is that she is not going to send the Italian army to defend Ukraine.”
In any case, Europe “does not have the means and probably does not have the will” to help Ukraine sufficiently so that it can stand up to the Russian army in the event of an American withdrawal, analyzes François Heisbourg.
