US withdrawal would make Europe more vulnerable, particularly countries bordering Russia such as the Baltic states and Poland. NATO's deterrence capacity would be considerably reduced, with the United States representing “a little less than half of NATO's military capabilities”, General Jérôme Pellistrandi reminds BFMTV. France and the United Kingdom are less vulnerable, because they have nuclear deterrence.
Trump could notably demand that European allies further increase their military spending, under penalty of withdrawing American support. If he withdraws it, European countries would be forced to significantly increase their defense budgets, particularly France and Germany. Europe also relies on the intelligence capabilities of the United States. A withdrawal could encourage other powers, such as Russia or China, to be more aggressive in their foreign policies.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte sent his congratulations to Donald Trump, assuring that his return to the White House will help the Atlantic Alliance to remain “strong”. “His leadership will once again be a key element in keeping our Alliance strong. I look forward to working with him again to advance peace by strengthening NATO,” he said in a statement.
EU – US trade relations
Trade tensions between the United States and the EU could worsen, with the possibility of new taxes on European imports. Donald Trump mentioned it quickly during his speech on Wednesday November 6 as he claimed victory.
Cooperation on issues like climate change could be called into question, with Trump previously withdrawing the United States from the Paris accords.
“This should ask us not about what the United States is going to do, but about what Europe is capable of doing. In a certain number of absolutely key sectors, defense, reindustrialization, decarbonization, we must take our destiny in hand,” Maud Bregeon, government spokesperson, told RTL.
War in Ukraine
The election of Donald Trump could mean a significant reduction in American military and financial aid to kyiv. It is possible that he will seek to quickly negotiate a peace deal with Russia, potentially at the expense of Ukraine.
But in his congratulations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky instead spoke of a partnership between the two countries. “I remember our big meeting with President Trump in September, during which we discussed in detail the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States, the plan for victory and ways to end the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the “peace through strength” approach to world affairs. This is exactly the principle that can concretely bring a just peace closer to Ukraine. I hope we implement it together. »
