Since Monday, the French government has been pleading with Brussels to ease up on one of the emblematic elements of the European Green Deal: the CO emissions reduction targets.2 of the automotive sector. The Minister of the Economy Antoine Armand and his counterpart in Industry Marc Ferracci ask the European Commission not to apply the fines planned against manufacturers who are not on track in 2025. The European regulation known as CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) imposes a reduction in emissions from new cars of 15% next year compared to the 2021 level. Then, this text voted in 2019 sets new, increasingly ambitious levels for each coming year, until the famous ban on sales of gasoline models in 2035.
France assures us: it does not wish to shatter this trajectory, but Paris would like exceptionally in 2025, the EU to show clemency towards bad students. According to the regulation, the latter would otherwise have to pay fines per gram of CO2 surplus, sometimes several hundred million euros.
“There was time to anticipate”
In reality, the government is mainly giving in to pressure from Renault, whose boss, Luca de Meo, has been calling for such a reprieve since mid-summer. The group says that manufacturers on the Old Continent will have to pay, in total, 15 billion euros to Europe. A figure, however, contradicted by other estimates: HSBC estimates the note at around 5.1 billion euros, and at several hundred million for the French brand alone. Renault also suggests that all European groups are in the same bag. However, for example on the French side, Stellantis, which has prepared well for the objective set by Brussels, wants to keep the rules.
“Almost all manufacturers are ready for 2025, whether Peugeot, BMW, Citroën, Mercedes, Fiat, Opel, DS… And this deadline has been known for six years, there was time to anticipate, points out Aurélien Bigo, researcher associated with the Energy and Prosperity chair. In fact, only Renault and Volkswagen would be in difficulty. »
With the probable support of Berlin, which defends Volkswagen, will France win its case in Brussels? On Monday, a spokesperson for the European Commission deemed the French request “premature”. By definition, we do not yet know the sales figures for 2025 and any fines must not be levied by the executive of the European Union until 2026.
A threat to electricity?
Among the defenders of the green deal, there is fear that the French initiative will lead to reopening the law as a whole and calling into question the 2035 objective. Which is in particular a request from Italy and the German right, which is likely to return to power in less than a year.
“I don’t know if Renault understands the Pandora’s box that we are opening,” warns Place Publique MEP Thomas Pellerin-Carlin. In the European Parliament, there is a mathematical majority between the right and the far right, which would be able to threaten the general objective of a shift towards electricity in the automobile industry. »
But according to Macronist MEP Pascal Canfin, the French offensive in no way threatens the 2035 objective, “an essential milestone”; especially since in the eyes of this former director general of WWF France, who was one of the great architects of the Green Deal, France’s demands do not necessarily require reopening the CAFE regulation: “It is simply a matter of to be intelligent in the implementation for 2025, making sure not to penalize manufacturers who invest in electric, because objectively, we cannot say that Renault is not playing the game.”
The smooth transition option
And concretely? “We could imagine that instead of supplementing the European budget as is currently planned, the sums paid by manufacturers would go into a fund aimed at accelerating the decarbonization of the automobile sector,” believes the MEP. Or again, we could take orders for new vehicles placed in 2025 as an indicator rather than registrations, in order to give three or four months of flexibility to manufacturers. » The government has not mentioned this type of development: Paris above all seems to want to cancel any sanctions next year.
Pascal Canfin and Thomas Pellerin-Carlin agree on at least one point: the transition to electric cars in Europe faces a problem of demand and no longer of supply. Each of these two parliamentarians therefore recommends as a “priority” to focus on measures intended to stimulate the consumption of these models, such as social leasing.
