The Russians are moving up a gear in southern Donbass. As were the last days of October, the first days of November 2024 will see the Russian army make significant progress in this region, long designated as one of Vladimir Putin's major objectives.
A pincer between Vuhledar and Pokrovsk
These advances were made west of Donetsk, on the edge of the Eastern and Southern fronts. Russian offensives in this sector follow two axes: one starts from the Pokrovsk region towards the south, the other starts from the Vuhledar sector towards the north. As shown in the map below, these axes are intended to meet.
The scale of this Russian progress quite far exceeds that of the advances observed in recent months. In the Vuhledar sector, Kremlin troops have advanced a dozen kilometers since the beginning of October. South of Pokrovsk, Russian advances are, depending on the sector, between 5 and 13 km.
Certainly, these totals are not those that we would observe if the Russians had broken through the front, or if the Ukrainians collapsed. But they are still symptomatic of the difficulties the Ukrainians have in the region, if only to reorganize credible defensive lines and fill them with sufficient men.
Gains that lead to others
Above all, they portend problems that the Ukrainians could face in the coming weeks, if not the coming days. Because, at this rate, the trap that is being formed between Pokrovsk and Vuhledar could quickly close on the Ukrainian troops.
If they do not want to risk capture, they will have to withdraw in the most organized way possible. This withdrawal decision would facilitate further Russian advances and modify the contours of the front line in a way that had not been seen for many months.
Above all, by allowing the Russians to realign their front, these withdrawals will allow the Kremlin's troops to push a little further west. This is when the battle for the town of Pokrovsk, which is only six kilometers from the Russian front lines, could begin. Vladimir Putin's army would also have the possibility of advancing southwest of the city, in order to complete the conquest of southern Donbass.
