January 3 stands out in the mortality statistics of recent years. According to a recent INSEE study, published at the end of October 2024, this day records an average of 1,900 deaths between 2004 and 2023, compared to around 1,600 for other days of the year. This trend can be explained by various factors linked to the life cycle and habits of the French, in particular the desire to spend the end of year holidays with family, which could postpone deaths for those at the end of life.
January 3: an annual mortality peak
INSEE figures reveal that January 3 is, year after year, the day when the greatest number of deaths is recorded. This “end of year effect” could be explained by a desire of vulnerable people to experience the holidays and reach the start of a new year alongside their loved ones. This phenomenon is particularly visible among individuals at the end of life, who seem to delay the inevitable to celebrate a final moment with their loved ones.
In comparison, some days have much lower death rates. This is the case for August 15, the least deadly day with an average of 1,410 deaths, or 12% less than the annual average. This trend could be influenced by the drop in activity in hospitals during public holidays, thus limiting the admission of patients in critical situations.
The increase in deaths on his birthday
In addition to annual trends, the INSEE study highlights an intriguing phenomenon: on one's birthday, the risk of death increases, particularly among men aged 18 to 39. This phenomenon, sometimes called “birthday syndrome”, has also been observed in other countries such as Switzerland or the United States. The causes could be multiple: birthday celebrations are often accompanied by risky behaviors, such as alcohol consumption, which increases the risk of road accidents, falls or heart attacks.
In Japan, for example, birthday is associated with an increased risk of suicide. This symbolic date can reinforce feelings of sadness or loneliness in some people, increasing the risk of self-destructive behavior. This syndrome, although still poorly understood, highlights the importance of psychological and social factors in mortality rates.
An overall drop in mortality in 2023
Overall, INSEE observes a drop in the number of deaths in France in 2023, with 639,300 deaths recorded, a decrease of 35,900 compared to the previous year. This decrease contrasts with the year 2022, which was marked by high mortality due to multiple waves of COVID-19, influenza and successive heatwaves. However, although mortality has decreased, it remains 4% higher than the pre-pandemic level in 2019.
This persistence of high mortality is explained by the aging of the French population and a slowdown in the improvement in life expectancy. In other words, even as the direct effects of the pandemic subside, deep demographic trends continue to influence death statistics.
Public holidays and mortality: a downward trend
The INSEE study also highlights that public holidays are often associated with a slight drop in mortality. This observation is particularly visible during civil and religious holidays, when hospital admissions and interventions are less frequent, which could influence death statistics. In fact, fewer people at the end of their lives are hospitalized on these days, reducing the number of deaths linked to medical complications.
Although the COVID-19 pandemic has changed mortality patterns, INSEE recalls that the aging of the population remains a determining factor in the increase in the number of deaths. The aging of the baby boom generation is causing more older people to reach older ages, leading to a natural increase in deaths each year. At the same time, life expectancy is increasing less rapidly than before, in particular due to certain obstacles linked to public health and population behavior.
Photo credit: DR
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