New York (awp/afp) – The dollar recovered on Friday after an initial decline following a poor job creation figure in the United States, which currency traders ultimately took with a grain of salt.
Around 7:30 p.m. GMT, the Dollar Index, which compares the greenback to a basket of six currencies, increased by 0.29%.
The “greenback” – nickname of the United States currency – gained 0.42% against the single European currency, to 1.0837 dollars per euro.
The market initially reacted badly to the monthly report from the US Department of Labor, according to which the US economy created only 12,000 jobs in October, while economists announced 110,000.
This is the lowest level since December 2020.
The “buck” – another nickname for the American currency – then slipped to 1.0905 dollars per euro.
But it quickly recovered, as did bond yields.
The yield on 2-year US government bonds thus fell from 4.21% to 4.06%, before rising to 4.20%, a very sudden movement on the scale of this market.
“It is very clear that this figure (of employment) is distorted by the recent strikes and hurricanes” Hélène and Milton, which swept the southeast of the United States respectively at the end of September and the beginning of October, warns Christopher Vecchio, from Tastylive.
In October, some 33,000 Boeing employees were on work stoppage because they were unable to reach an agreement with the aircraft manufacturer's management on a new social agreement.
“So I don’t know what we can really conclude from the main figure,” asks Christopher Vecchio, who preferred to note that the average salary is up 4% over one year, and that the unemployment rate has remained stable at 4.1%.
“Looking at the indicators of recent weeks, it is clear that the American economy is growing at a sustained pace,” argues the analyst.
A picture which justifies a rise in bond rates and a firmer posture from the American central bank (Fed), all things favorable to the dollar.
Although he expects an increase in volatility with the American presidential election, Christopher Vecchio does not see the dollar moving significantly whatever the outcome of Tuesday's vote, precisely because the United States economy remains resilient.
“This should limit political risk and simply lead to oscillations within a narrow margin,” anticipates the analyst.
Cours de vendredi Cours de jeudi 19H30 GMT 21H00 GMT EUR/USD 1,0837 1,0884 EUR/JPY 165,80 165,47 EUR/CHF 0,9436 0,9404 EUR/GBP 0,8384 0,8437 USD/JPY 152,98 152,03 USD/CHF 0,8707 0,8640 GBP/USD 1,2925 1,2899
afp/rp
