4-week trend: a wet and stormy June

4-week trend: a wet and stormy June
4-week trend: a wet and stormy June

After a rainy month of May with a sometimes cool feeling, we arrive at the start of the meteorological summer which begins this June 1st. This trend will cover the whole of this month.

Week of June 3 to 9: rising temperatures with increasingly heavy weather

This first week of June will follow the improvement started in the west at the end of May. The sunshine will be generous over 3/4 of the country resulting in a rise in the thermometer. In the southern half, 30°C will be approached, or even exceeded locally, while it will be over 25°C over a good part of the northern half. However, the sky will not be clear, with still some grayness in the northeast. At the end of the week, the weather could really get worse with the return of unstable and stormy conditions from the southwest. The feeling will therefore remain humid and heavy.

Week of June 10 to 16: the weather remains heavy and stormy

In line with the previous weekend, France could remain under unstable influence linked to a cold drop on the Bay of Biscay. The flow could move towards the southwest sector, with humid heat and possible thunderstorms. The southeast would stay away with hot and dry weather, while the northwest would see cooler and cloudy conditions. Temperatures would be close to seasonal norms, or even slightly above.

Week from June 17 to 23: disturbed and cool in the north, seasonal in the south

At this point, reliability becomes significantly worse. The preferred scenario is that of a return to a disturbed and fresh northwesterly flow, at least over the northern half. Temperatures could therefore return slightly below seasonal norms, with numerous showers, sometimes stormy, and little sunshine. In the south, summer conditions should persist, particularly in the southeast where the weather should mostly remain dry. Under these conditions, thunderstorms could break out with numerous air mass conflicts between the southwest and the northeast.

Week of June 24 to 30: towards an improvement?

Although reliability is quite low at this time, the weather could become hotter and drier as we approach July. However, there is currently no signal showing heat wave on the horizon or heatwave. Thunderstorms would never be far away, particularly in the northern half.

Next update, Thursday June 6 at 5 p.m.



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