With no party winning a majority in British Columbia following the October 19 election and Elections BC still conducting a recount, the specter of an alliance between the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Green Party looms. But what would a possible coalition look like this time?
As of Friday, October 25, mail-in votes have not all been counted, and three recounts are underway.
Preliminary results give 46 seats to the NPD from David Eby, 45 to the conservatives of John Rustad, and 2 to the greens of Sonia Furstenau.
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British Columbia elections: Sonia Furstenau, leader of the Green Party, David Eby, leader of the New Democratic Party, John Rustad, leader of the Conservative Party.
Photo: The Canadian Press / Ethan Cairns / Darryl Dyck / Ethan Cairns
With 47 seats required for a majority, the province faces a minority government scenario.
If these results do not change, the Greens therefore hold the balance of power and could offer their support to the NPD to make the province function more smoothly.
A déjà vu of the 2017 alliance?
The situation is reminiscent of that of 2017, when no party obtained the majority of seats the day after the provincial election.
In May 2017, the Green Party, led by Andrew Weaver, formed an alliance with the New Democratic Party to allow it to lead the province. This agreement removed Liberal leader Christy Clark from power. His position at the time is reminiscent of where David Eby now finds himself.
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Green Party leader Andrew Weaver (left) and his NDP counterpart, John Horgan (right), during the agreement that allowed the NDP to govern British Columbia.
Photo : Reuters / Kevin Light
This agreement, called support without participation
urged the Green Party to support votes of confidence and budget without its deputies having a role within the government.
However, in 2020, Premier John Horgan broke this agreement by calling an election without consulting the Greens, prematurely ending their agreement.
What the Greens could ask for
The BC Greens are still a little reeling from their latest support and confidence deal with the NPDwhich was cut short
estimates Mo Amir, political commentator and host of the podcast Vancolour.
This view is supported by Hamish Telford, professor of political science at the University of the Fraser Valley.
John Horgan surprised the Greens, to say the least, by calling an election without consulting them. It is difficult to build these types of relationships
a clear violation of their agreement.
However, an agreement is always possible.
According to Hamish Telford, Sonia Furstenau could take the opportunity to seek to have some of the policies she presented in her party’s platform adopted.
During the election campaign, Ms Furstenau said the main thing she would like to see in such a deal, if it were to happen, would be a welfare index, forcing the government to take into account the welfare of Britanno -Colombians in addition to other economic indicators
your Hamish Telford.
The Green Party could also ask the NPD to return, once again, to its position on the carbon tax and not to repeal it for individuals, if Ottawa allowed it.
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The Green Party could call for a moratorium on any new liquefied natural gas projects in the province.
Photo: The Canadian Press / Darryl Dyck
Nicolas Kenny, observer of the political scene and professor of history at Simon Fraser University, notes a seduction from the very evening of the election, when David Eby extended a hand to the Green Party.
If the support of the Greens is essential in the case of a NPD minority, he believes that Sonia Furstenau’s party does not have much room for maneuver in its negotiations.
The Greens’ negotiating power is still limited because the alternative is to go back to an election.
They have two new MPs who have never sat and who need to learn the ropes. Their coffers are empty after a long campaign.
And support for the conservatives?
At a press conference, the first after her defeat as a candidate in the Victoria-Beacon Hill riding, the leader of the Green Party, Sonia Furstenau, closed the door to collaboration with the conservatives.
Sonia Furstenau claimed that comments made by certain conservative candidates were truly disturbing, dehumanizing, homophobic and conspiratorial
. She pointed out that John Rustad did not respond satisfactorily to these statements.
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Conservative Brent Chapman, who was elected in his riding of Surrey South, posted controversial comments that led to voters calling for his resignation.
Photo : - / Ben Nelms
Mo Amir believes this is an almost impossible alliance, particularly on the climate issue: The words “climate change” only appeared once in the Conservative platform.
The abolition of the carbon tax is almost a profession de foi
for the provincial Conservative Party, which would immediately block negotiations with the Green Party, believes Hamish Telford.
The Conservatives and their campaign all advocated increased and accelerated development of natural resources. Therefore, probably with less regulation, supervision and environmental consideration, I don’t see the Greens going in that direction
he adds.
According to Mo Amir, he was interesting
to learn that Sonia Furstenau did not respond to John Rustad’s call. She then clarified that it was because she didn’t recognize the number, which also seems a bit strange to me
he confides.