will rising prices change your breakfast?

will rising prices change your breakfast?
will rising prices change your breakfast?

The prices of flagship breakfast products have increased by more than 50%, according to a study by broker Etoro taken up by our colleagues at BFM Bourse. What impact can this increase have on our consumption habits? Decryption.

Coffee, chocolate powder and orange juice are three essential family breakfast products. However, a few days ago, the broker Etoro, cited by BFM Bourse, announced a “breakfast index” up 55% over one year, making consumers fear a sharp increase in shelf prices.

The climatic conditions involved

More precisely, it is the prices of Robusta coffee beans, cocoa beans and oranges that are exploding. Cocoa even increased by 270% during the year, before experiencing a drastic decline in early May.

The cause is the climatic conditions in the main producing countries of these three raw materials. Heavy rains in West Africa affected cocoa production, drought affected the coffee harvest in Vietnam, hurricanes in Florida had a strong impact on orange cultivation, as did diseases and parasites.

As a result, the production of these foodstuffs fell, therefore the supply decreased, which led to a rise in prices, further amplified by speculation on the markets.

On the shelves, increases but probably limited

However, this does not mean that shelf prices will be affected in the same way. Already, because there is a delay of several months between rising prices and rising prices for consumers.

Then, because the raw materials do not form the entirety of the finished product, and manufacturers can make savings on other aspects (packaging, replacing certain ingredients with less qualitative ones, etc.).

Manufacturers of coffee, chocolate and orange juice will therefore be able to partially cushion the price increase. But even attenuated, it remains likely that increases will be visible on the shelves.

Ingrained habits

This does not mean, however, that consumer behavior will change. Coffee is not really a substitutable product, and the French love it. It is the most consumed hot drink in France, 8 out of 10 French people drink it. Moreover, the rise in coffee prices began in 2022 and yet demand is still stronger.

Worldwide, the 2023/2024 period is expected to represent a record with 169.5 million 60kg bags consumed, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. There is therefore little risk that our consumption will drop, unless we switch to chicory…

Chicory in fashion?

This plant grown in the North and which offers a drink with a slightly caramelized taste, close to coffee and without caffeine, has been making a comeback in recent years. Sector leader Leroux, interviewed by France 2, says he has observed an increase in his sales of 20% over two years.

The trend, however, still remains limited: according to Nestlé, cited by Le Figaro, Ricoré, which supplies 8 out of 10 cups of chicory drunk, only covers 4% of the coffee market sold in supermarkets.

In any case, it is not chicory that will replace the bowl of chocolate milk popular with children. Even if the rise in cocoa prices is already impacting prices (according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, cocoa drinks increased by 23.3% between January 2022 and mid-February 2024), consumption , could continue its sustained pace.

Chocolate, little substitutable

At Easter, chocolates may have increased by 6.5% on average according to a study by panelist Nielsen IQ, but sales remained stable and even increased a little, by 0.3%.

Chocolate powder, which represents 13% of the chocolate market, is, like coffee, poorly substitutable. It is therefore a safe bet that the French will continue to buy them in the months to come.

Consumers could eventually turn to inexpensive brands, like private label brands or those sold in low-cost stores. Around 25% cheaper than their competitors, private label brands now make up around 34% of French purchases.

Reduced juice consumption

Orange juice, on the other hand, could see its consumption drop. This has in fact already been the case for fruit juices in general for around ten years, according to the interprofessional union Unijus.

They suffer from a negative image conveyed by health professionals who accuse them of being too sweet. Now classified in the category of “pleasure foods”, it is also a product that can be more easily done without.

Too high a price increase could therefore encourage consumers to turn away from it. This is in any case what is happening in the United States, where demand is at half mast, according to Alexandre Baradez, columnist for Capital, cited by the magazine.



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