The RN still far ahead, a Hayer-Glucksmann duel: what the latest polls say, two weeks before the European elections

The RN still far ahead, a Hayer-Glucksmann duel: what the latest polls say, two weeks before the European elections
The RN still far ahead, a Hayer-Glucksmann duel: what the latest polls say, two weeks before the European elections

It is on June 9 that voters are called to the polls to nominate the 81 French European deputies. Here’s what the latest polls say.

Invariably, from one poll to another, the National Rally appears to be the big favorite in the European elections on June 9. If Jordan Bardella’s progression curve has not evolved significantly, neither in one direction nor the other, after his media debate against Gabriel Attal, the head of the RN list remains far, very far ahead, in voting intentions.

A well-established leading trio

The Ifop-Fiducial survey, which measures “in real time” the voting intentions of the French for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio, thus crediting him with 33% of the votes, his highest level in this campaign. “An undeniable sign of its domination, 84% of its voters say they are sure of their choices, eleven points more than the average”adds Le Figaro.

This same survey confirms the duel for second place between Valérie Hayer, presidential majority candidate, and Raphaël Glucksmann (Socialist Party / Public Square). Even if the first, according to Ifop, regains a slight advantage with a slight drop in the second. They are respectively credited with 16% and 14.5% of the votes. Too far from the RN in any case to hope to reverse the trend in the last fortnight of the campaign.

Four candidates in a handkerchief

Behind it, it moves slightly. François-Xavier Bellamy, with 7.5% of voting intentions, remains 4th, but he is joined by the Insoumise Manon Aubry. Marion Maréchal, Reconquête candidate, also gained 0.5% to stand at 6.5% of the vote. The ecologist Marie Toussaint completes the list of candidates who could cross the 5% threshold allowing MPs to be sent to Brussels… but she remains on the razor’s edge, for the moment credited with… 5% of voting intentions.

Behind, however, things seem to have been understood. Given at 2%, the French Communist Party of Léon Deffontaines, despite its buzz during the debate on Tuesday, seems to be struggling. It is closely followed by the Animalists (1.5%), the Patriot list (1.5%) and the Rural Alliance of Jean Lassalle which is still not taking off (1%). The other 26 lists are credited with less than 0.5% of voting intentions.

Other polls

These data are generally shared by the other surveys. Thus, the OpinionWay survey for CNews, Europe 1 and Le JDD give more or less the same ranking, with Jordan Bardella (32%) far ahead of Valérie Hayer (16%) and Raphaël Glucksmann (13%). The only difference in this one, François-Xavier Bellamy would lead the pursuers alone (8%), ahead of Mairon Maréchal, tied with Manon Aubry (7.5%). Here too Marie Toussaint can be worried with her 5%.

Let us also mention the poll aggregator of the Tout l’Europe site, which takes the average of all opinion surveys. This draws a ranking similar to that of the Ifop, with an RN still as powerful (32.5%), a presidential majority and a PS neck and neck (16.2% and 14.5%) and a quartet which stands within two points, with LR at 7.4%, LFI at 7.1%, Reconquest at 6.3% and EELV at 5.5%.

The candidates have two weeks left to make a difference.

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