« More than half of electricity will be of low-carbon origin before the end of the decade. » In its latest report published Wednesday October 16, the International Energy Agency persists and signs. In complete disagreement with these predictions, oil multinationals continue to invest heavily in hydrocarbons.
Between Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the international oil company, the connection no longer flows. There is certainly consensus on the explosion in energy needs, linked to the development of countries in the South, but also to the insatiable appetite for artificial intelligence and its thousands of data centers or even to the increasing air conditioning of public spaces and private sector that responds to global warming as much as it contributes to it.
But the Paris-based agency is betting that renewable energies, led by wind and solar on the one hand, and nuclear energy on the other, will still provide half of the planet’s electricity. by 2030. On this point, oil companies completely disagree. “ We must urgently abandon the fantasy of a gradual disappearance of oil and gas », Annoyed Amin Nasser, the powerful boss of the Saudi national oil company Aramco at an industry forum in Houston. « Instead, we must invest in these resources taking into account the realistic evolution of demand. “Saudi Arabia and oil-producing countries in general believe that oil consumption will continue to increase every year,” at least until 2045 ».
An analysis shared by the main private companies: in recent years, BP and Shell have in turn returned to their objectives for reducing oil and gas production. The French giant Total plans to increase its oil production by 3% every year until 2030. Ahead a Senate commission of inquiry French, last April, its CEO did not hold back from saying all the bad things he thought of the IEA’s predictions: “ The IEA’s ‘net zero’ scenario [qui prévoit la neutralité carbone en 2050, NDLR] is a theoretical scenario », insisted Patrick Pouyané to the senators. “ The IEA says that [compte tenu du déclin naturel des champs] we just need to stop investing in oil. The problem is that the same IEA explains to us every week that the demand for oil for the following year is increasing. » Visibly annoyed, the boss of Total bangs his fist on the table and attacks the boss of the Agency directly: “ It’s not me who should be asked the question, it’s Mr. Fatih Birol. Because I want us to have a new pope and a new bible, but that is not the reality of what we are experiencing today. »
“The transition to clean energy is irreversible”
The « new pope » in question, however, has nothing of a zadist in harem pants. The Turkish economist is a veteran, which perhaps explains the feeling of betrayal felt by industrialists. Before taking the helm of the IEA in 2015, he had a career within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec). While it is true that it has become aware of the climate emergency, the IEA, created after the first oil shock of 1973 to facilitate the security of energy supplies, remains above all a predictive instrument whose reports are still authentic. Before COP28, Fatih Birol launched a call to oil tankers talking about “ moment of truth » : « We will see if you are partners in the fight against climate change, yes or no. »
But he assures that his forecasts on peak oil have nothing political, citing in particular the slowdown in Chinese demand, the forced electrification of the automobile fleet and the domination of renewables in the planet’s energy investments at the point to now represent two thirds of the sums committed. “ The numbers are always right », a dit Fatih Birol en septembre in front of a New York think tank. « The transition to clean energy is irreversible. I see some celebrating every obstacle that comes along the way, but there is no doubt about the path ahead. »
