the RN stabilizes in the lead at 32%, the gap between Renaissance and the PS is reduced

the RN stabilizes in the lead at 32%, the gap between Renaissance and the PS is reduced
the RN stabilizes in the lead at 32%, the gap between Renaissance and the PS is reduced

Three weeks before the European elections, the RN continues to lead the race in voting intentions while the gap between Renaissance and the PS is narrowing, reveals the latest poll by the Elabe institute for BFMTV and La Tribune Sunday.

Soon the time to choose. Three weeks before the European elections on June 9, the National Rally (RN) is still well ahead of the presidential party and the Socialist Party (PS) in voting intentions, according to the latest poll by the Elabe institute for BFMTV and La Tribune Sunday published this Saturday, May 18.

Evolution of voting intentions for Europeans, according to an Elabe survey for BFMTV/La Tribune Dimanche – Elabe/BFMTV

Hayer still slightly down

The list led by President RN Jordan Bardella is credited with 32% of the voting intentions expressed, a stable figure compared to the last Elabe poll published two weeks ago.

Far behind the far-right party, the Renaissance and Socialist Party-Public Square lists see their curves getting closer. The majority candidate Valérie Hayer received 15.5% of the voting intentions expressed (-1 point compared to the May 4 poll), compared to 13% for the left-wing candidate Raphaël Glucksmann (+1 point).

The Mayenne MEP, credited with 18% of the votes in January, continues to lose points while the leader of Place publique seems buoyed by a favorable dynamic.

LFI, LR and the Greens neck and neck

Behind this leading trio, the lists of La France insoumise, the Greens and the Republicans are more neck-and-neck than ever and all show 7.5% voting intentions. Last candidate to exceed the 5% mark (threshold necessary to obtain deputies), the head of the Reconquête list Marion Maréchal would collect 5.5% of the votes if the vote took place this Sunday.

Three weeks before the election, a majority of voters have a clear idea of ​​the ballot paper they will choose. Thus, 69% of those questioned say they are sure of their choice, a proportion up 7 points in two weeks.

Proportion of voters to be sure of their voting choice before the Europeans, according to an Elabe survey for BFMTV/La Tribune Dimanche – Elabe/BFMTV

“The vote in favor of the RN list seems very solid: 9 out of 10 of their potential voters say they are sure of their choice (+5 points in 2 weeks). It is ahead of the Renaissance list in terms of security of choice (77%, +8 )”, while “the vote for the LR list remains volatile (58%, +1)”, summarizes the Elabe institute.

On the left, “we recorded strong increases (on the security of choice, Editor’s note) among potential voters of LFI (76%, +22) and the PS (65%, +13). On the other hand, voters of EELV would remain significantly more undecided (50%, +8)”.

Abstention still looks as strong as ever. Only 42% of those registered on the electoral roll say they are certain to vote – a figure which has, however, increased by two points since the previous survey.

Those who, on the contrary, wish to vote are 42% who are motivated as much by European issues as by national ones. 33% of respondents put priority on Franco-French issues, and 25% only on the European Union. National policy issues are more popular with voters close to the extreme right, among the RN (49%) and Reconquest (61%).

Survey carried out online from May 15 to 17, 2024 on a sample of 1,503 people, representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over, including 1,398 registered on the electoral lists. The representativeness of the sample was ensured according to the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age, profession, region and category of agglomeration. Margin of error between 1.1 and 3.5 percentage points.

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