Economic forecast for spring 2024: the Belgian economy should remain resilient even if inflation is expected to experience a strong rebound

Economic forecast for spring 2024: the Belgian economy should remain resilient even if inflation is expected to experience a strong rebound
Economic forecast for spring 2024: the Belgian economy should remain resilient even if inflation is expected to experience a strong rebound

In Belgium, economic growth is expected to remain broadly stable, at 1.3% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025. The gradual elimination of government measures aimed at limiting price increases is expected to push inflation up to 4.0 % in 2024, before it falls to 2.3% in 2025. The public deficit should stabilize at 4.4% of GDP in 2024, before rising to 4.7% of GDP in 2025, under the effect of upward pressure on permanent current expenditure. Public debt is expected to remain stable at 105% of GDP in 2024 and increase to 107% of GDP in 2025.

At the European level, the spring forecast expects GDP growth of 1.0% in the EU and 0.8% in the Eurozone in 2024. In 2025, GDP is expected to increase to 1.6% in the EU and 1.4% in the Eurozone. HICP inflation is expected to fall in the EU, from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024, then to 2.2% in 2025. In the euro area, it is expected to decelerate from 5.4% in 2024. % in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024, then to 2.1% in 2025.

These forecasts demonstrate that the EU economy has recovered in the first quarter. It will experience a gradual increase in growth during this year and next, given that private consumption will be supported by the fall in inflation, the recovery in purchasing power and continued employment growth. Public deficits are expected to narrow slightly following the withdrawal of almost all energy support measures, but public debt is expected to increase somewhat next year, underscoring the need for fiscal consolidation that protects investment . These forecasts remain surrounded by high uncertainty and, as two wars continue to rage not far from Europe’s borders, downside risks have increased.

For Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President for an Economy that Works for People, we must now focus on three priorities: “First, Member States should focus on reforms and investments conducive to sustainable growth, combined with more fiscal policies. prudent, in order to reduce debt rates, which are high. Second, we must take all possible measures to encourage investment. NextGenerationEU already plays an important role, but we can do much better to boost private investment: removing cross-border barriers and completing the Capital Markets Union remain essential. Third, we must continue to reap the benefits of our free trade model, including by entering into trade agreements with trusted partners. »

Context

Each year, the European Commission publishes two full forecast series (spring and autumn) and two intermediate series (winter and summer). The comprehensive forecast series cover a wide range of economic indicators for EU member states, candidate countries, EFTA countries and other large advanced or emerging market economies. The interim forecasts cover, for the current and next year, annual and quarterly GDP and inflation for each Member State as well as for the entire EU and the entire euro area.

The summer 2024 economic forecast, which will update the GDP and inflation projections in this publication, is expected to be presented in September 2024.

More information

Press release

Full document: Economic forecast for spring 2024

Spring economic forecast for Belgium

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