Since the beginning of October 2024, oil prices have been rising due to persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The oil market reacts strongly to uncertainties linked to international conflicts, and the prospects of a reduction in supply from this strategic region are at the center of concerns.
An increase in the barrel of oil stimulated by the international context
On October 7, 2024, the barrel of Brent exceeded 80 dollars, a threshold which had not been reached since August 2024. This rebound is mainly explained by tensions in the Middle East, in particular in Iran, one of the world’s largest oil producers. In response to these events, oil markets anticipate a possible reduction in Iranian production, which puts upward pressure on crude prices.
Analysts’ forecasts differ on price developments. Some estimate that if the situation stabilizes, the barrel could remain between 70 and 85 dollars by the end of the year. However, in the event of a prolonged escalation of tensions, it is possible that the price of Brent could exceed $90, or even reach $100.
The price of a barrel has in fact soared by more than 10% in a single week on the stock market.whether for the barrel of Brent or for American oil, WTI. The latter is trading on October 8, 2024 at more than $75 per barrel, compared to less than $70 at the end of September 2024.
The price of fuel will soar in turn
Although fuel prices in France are still relatively stable, with a slight increase observed in recent days, the situation could change quickly if geopolitical tensions persist. Currently, the data published as of October 4, 2024 show that the liter of SP95-E10 stands at 1.5905 euros, and that of diesel at 1.6873 euros on average. These increases, less than a cent per liter, remain small, but experts expect larger increases if the price of crude oil continues to rise.
Fuels, which represent a significant part of the household budget, could thus experience a notable increase in the coming weeks, affecting motorists and consumers in general. The effect of an increase in oil prices on fuel at the pump is not immediate, but it tends to be felt in the days or weeks following an increase in the price of a barrel of oil.
Energy market volatility
In addition to the direct impact on fuel prices, an increase in oil prices could also have consequences on the production costs of other energy sources, such as electricity and gas. Energy companies, which are directly affected by changes in oil prices, could adjust their prices to reflect this increase. Which could lead to higher bills for consumers.
In this context, fluctuations in oil prices are closely scrutinized by businesses and governments, because they influence not only energy costs, but also the prices of consumer goods, transport and agricultural production. Indeed, oil plays a key role in the global economy, and any variation in its price has repercussions across all value chains.
