There is a bear trap lurking in the PLQ leadership race.
This trap would be to believe that a charismatic personality like Pablo Rodriguez or other contenders would be enough to breathe new life into the PLQ.
That would be a mistake. There are important questions that the PLQ must address, which go beyond the analysis of the personal qualities of the candidates.
The central question
To get out of their slump – I remind you that in most French-speaking counties in 2022, the PLQ obtained less than 5% – the race will have to be an exercise in clarifying their ideas.
Some examples: center-left like Anglade or right-wing like Couillard on economic issues? PLC branch or assumed independence from Ottawa? Rejection or acceptance of Law 96? So on.
However, all these issues should not overlook the central question that any Quebec federalist party in 2024 should think about. And that the PLQ always avoids.
This question is that of the accelerated decrease in the weight of Quebec in Canada. In other words: the question of Quebec’s declining influence in Canada.
This trend has been affecting Canada and Quebec for decades, but it has accelerated since 2020 due to immigration.
Some figures
At the founding of Canada, the weight of Quebec was approximately a third of Canada. This continued until 1960.
In 1970, Quebec now accounted for 28% of Canada.
In 2000, our weight decreased to 24%. From a third to a quarter.
In 2022, we were now 22%.
And for the future? Statistics Canada’s scenarios indicate that we will reach below 20% before 2040. Less than a fifth!
We would then reach 18% in 2050.
Meanwhile, Ontario’s population may soon be double ours. He will represent 40% of Canada, and we, less than 20%.
The fall is brutal.
The PLQ must think about it
Any federalist party, believing by default that our Canadian membership is advantageous for Quebec, should go out of its way to answer this question.
This demographic fact puts Quebec at a disadvantage.
In 2023, André Pratte estimated in our pages that this was not inevitable.
Pratte argues that Quebec would only have to increase its immigration thresholds to follow Canada (even if the majority of Quebecers are against it and francization would be practically impossible). Or that a change of government in Ottawa could change this trend.
It’s the equivalent of a prayer, not a solution: this has been going on for more than 50 years, regardless of the color of the federal government.
Canadian Foundations
Since 1995, Canada has changed.
Its demographics are changing, the myth of the two founding peoples and the two official languages only exists in theory, and respect for the sharing of powers between the provinces and the federal government only concerns Quebec.
This is what should worry every Quebec federalist and be at the center of discussions during the next PLQ leadership race.
