New York (awp/afp) – The dollar continued its advance on Thursday, driven by a change of perspective among currency traders, who see the American Federal Reserve (Fed) firmer than expected and the other major central banks more accommodating, against a backdrop of aversion to risk.
The Dollar Index, which compares the United States currency to a basket of six currencies, rose to 102.1, the highest in a month and a half.
The “greenback” – one of the nicknames of the American currency – also came close to the symbolic threshold of 1.10 dollars for the euro.
“We are continuing what we have seen since the start of the week,” commented Brad Bechtel, from Jefferies.
On the one hand, “expectations regarding the Fed” and the pace of its rate cuts “have calmed down”, recalls the analyst.
On the other hand, “several central banks have changed their tone and are now more accommodating,” he continues.
On Thursday, the Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), Andrew Bailey, estimated that if inflation continued to ease, the institution could ramp up its monetary easing cycle.
On Monday, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, indicated that recent indicators had reassured her in the idea that inflation was returning, in the euro zone, towards its long-term objective, namely 2 % per year.
“Even the Bank of Japan has moderated its offensive speech” in recent days, noted Brad Bechtel.
Added to this dynamic is a movement of risk aversion following the escalation between Iran and Israel, which threatens to destabilize the region.
In such a context, the American dollar appears as a safe haven, while currency traders flee the most volatile currencies such as the South African rand or the Australian dollar.
Cours de jeudi Cours de mercredi 21H00 GMT 21H00 GMT EUR/USD 1,1031 1,1045 EUR/JPY 162,09 162,28 EUR/CHF 0,9407 0,9384 EUR/GBP 0,8404 0,8324 USD/JPY 146,93 146,92 USD/CHF 0,8529 0,8497 GBP/USD 1,3124 1,3268
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