The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are disrupting many lives and could influence Americans’ choices in November.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took advantage of his presence in the United States for the United Nations General Assembly to try to bring the spotlight back on the conflict with Russia.
Many Republicans perceived his visit to a munitions manufacturing plant in Pennsylvania as a political appearance for the benefit of the Democratic opponent, even if he also met Donald Trump.
The intensification of Israeli military activities in Lebanon is exacerbating fears of a military conflagration in the Middle East. Joe Biden, in his last major speech on the international scene, spoke of a world that finds itself at a decisive moment, without offering a solution to try to resolve these conflicts.
This analysis was initially published in our political newsletter of September 29. Every Sunday, Yanik Dumont-Baron guides you through the American presidential campaign by reporting on his thoughts and those of his colleagues.
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What this changes: the intensification of fighting in Lebanon is a powerful reminder of the failures of the diplomacy of the Joe Biden administration (and then that of Kamala Harris, by the way) in the Middle East.
Nearly a year has passed since the Hamas attacks in southern Israel. American efforts allowed the return of a few dozen Israeli hostages and the arrival of humanitarian aid, but they did not prevent the death of more than 40,000 Gazans and the pulverization of a good part of the infrastructure of the Gaza Strip.
Many voters may conclude that the United States has been powerless or not influential enough with Israel. Many Muslim Americans refuse to support Kamala Harris, a choice that could help Donald Trump in certain crucial states like Michigan.
Some voters may also question the strategy of American support for Ukraine as conceived by Joe Biden.
The Democratic president has offered more than $60 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. However, after two and a half years, the conflict seems bogged down. And Ukraine is asking for more aid, therefore more money.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Republican candidate Donald Trump on Friday in New York.
Photo : Getty Images / Alex Kent
Here again, some voters could be tempted to choose Donald Trump upon realizing that they have failed. He proposes another avenue to resolve this conflict, suggesting that we must stop devoting so many resources to it.
Yes, but foreign policy issues generally do not weigh heavily in voters’ choices. They are more concerned about themes closer to their daily lives, such as inflation, employment and health.
This year, when the world seems very unstable, foreign policy issues could especially serve as a guide to voters. They allow us to contrast two visions of possible commanders-in-chief. Kamala Harris proposes multilateralism and cooperation, two concepts very opposed to America First and the economic protectionism of Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, former diplomats, senior military officers and former national security officials continue to brandish support for Kamala Harris. We must make a choice between serious leadership and vengeful impulsiveness, between democracy and authoritarianism, wrote 700 of them, Democrats and Republicans alike, a few days ago.
Former General Stanley McChrystal, who commanded American troops in Afghanistan, also raises his hand, believing that Kamala Harris is in politics with the aim of working for the national interest and not for her own interest.
