What does Marine Le Pen risk?

What does Marine Le Pen risk?
What does Marine Le Pen risk?

Tou usually very verbose when it comes to commenting on the country’s legal news, this time the executives of the National Rally are particularly discreet when discussing the trial which will be put against them for two months at the bar of the criminal court. “No one is authorized to comment on this,” threatens behind the scenes RN MEP Alexandre Varaut who, if he is not prosecuted, benefits from media exclusivity in his capacity as a lawyer.

Silence, starting this Monday we are filming the remake of an affair from which François Bayrou and the MoDem already suffered last year. With a much higher budget this time in the sights of the accusation, which suspects the National Front – which became RN in 2018 – of having taken nearly seven million euros from the European Parliament between 2009 and 2017. No amateurism or of culpable levity, at the end of eight years of an investigation born on the basis of an anonymous report, the magistrates thus concluded that the establishment “in a concerted and deliberate manner” of a “system of diversion” of the envelopes allocated to MPs to pay their parliamentary assistants. On the bench of 25 defendants, note a dozen of these collaborators, but also the presence of MEPs – or who were – including Julien Odoul, spokesperson for the RN, Louis Aliot, its vice-president, Bruno Gollnisch and of course Marine Le Pen on the front line.

“Wind up like a pendulum”

They will be concretely accused of having transformed these real-false assistants into employees of the National Front, effectively diverting to the coffers of a party, then regularly overdrawn, the 21,000 euros monthly endowment granted to each deputy. And thus achieve substantial salary savings. Forced to assume responsibility for the substance of the affair as much as this providential cash flow, Marine Le Pen’s entourage then pretends to formally contest the notion of fictitious jobs. “These people who work in the service of elected officials do not have to be employees of the European Parliament, what we are accused of is only a difference of appreciation of what their missions should be. » Let’s add as a defense the complaint of judicial relentlessness, but also the theory of a conspiracy fomented by Martin Schulz – former President of Parliament – ​​and the Minister of Justice at the time, Christiane Taubira, and it’s at the front overturned that the RN General Staff will try to turn the court into a political forum.

What does it matter if in the summer of 2023, in a related aspect of the affair, Marine Le Pen had already been forced to reimburse 330,000 euros to the European Parliament for the undue employment of two assistants – her chief of staff and a guard of the body – those around her now describe her on a war footing. “Of course she will be present from the start, and even wound up like a clock because she finds these accusations profoundly unfair,” confides a relative.

Although we do not yet know the day of her hearing, she should however benefit from relative anonymity on the second day of a trial overshadowed, Tuesday, by Michel Barnier’s general policy speech. Session which the head of the RN group plans to attend on the benches of the Assembly rather than that of the court. “For the rest, expect to see her often, since it is to lighten her workload that Jean-Philippe Tanguy and Sébastien Chenu have just been promoted to deputy presidents of our group. I hope for the prosecutors that they have prepared their cases well. »

remains a land of tolerance for politicians caught with their hand in the jam pot”

Because beyond possible prison sentences and a financial sanction that the RN would now have the means to absorb, it is more the specter of ineligibility which worries the eternal Elysee candidate. While playing down the issue, Edwige Diaz nevertheless swears not to believe it. “It’s the dream of our adversaries,” sweeps away the MP who, alone or almost, allows herself a few confidences after a discreet meeting to establish the sacrosanct elements of language. “And even if Marine receives a conviction, nothing says that it would coincide with the presidential calendar,” reassures the brand new vice-president for local implementation of elected officials. Where we will then remember how the RN had wisely taken care to spare François Bayrou during his trial, pleading today for the defense a practice common to all political parties.

The specter of ineligibility

The expected acceleration of the electoral calendar could nevertheless harm the ambitions of some of these potentially prevented executives, Marine Le Pen first, while the decision will be made next spring. “Allow me not to anticipate any condemnation,” annoys Alexandre Varaut. “But if one of the two camps were to appeal, therefore suspensive, the new trial would not take place for two years. I’ll let you do the math. » Except to say that everyone risks the double penalty of immediately enforceable ineligibility, like Hubert Falco or Brigitte Barèges, the former mayors of and , recently paid the price to almost general surprise. “Of course, but in fact, the Constitutional Council has banned it in a rather mysterious way for deputies for around fifteen years. »


According to political scientist Jean-Daniel Lévy, legal cases have almost never altered the reputation of the National Front and the RN.

Jean-Christophe Sounalet / SO

Alas, who knows if the justice that the people will render in the opinion polls will not be more lenient than that of the judges? “Until now, the legal cases, any more than the difficulties encountered by Madame Le Pen, have not really altered the reputation of the RN,” warns Jean-Daniel Lévy. Deputy director of the Harris Interactive institute, the political scientist notes a “marginal” effect, convinced in this that France remains a land of tolerance for political personnel caught with their hand in the jam pot. “Among others, let us remember that despite “Pénélopegate” and the Bourgi affair, Fillon had exceeded 20% in the first round of the presidential election. It is also striking to note that at the time of the Cahuzac scandal, people condemned the lie more than the act itself. A form of typically French leniency, which is hardly found anywhere else except in Italy. »

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