Kazakhstan plans to increase production at its Tengiz oil field, one of the country’s largest, in 2025. The expansion could add up to 260,000 barrels per day, bringing total production to nearly 900,000 barrels daily. Despite this growth, the Kazakh government remains determined to respect its commitments to OPEC+, a global agreement which aims to stabilize the oil market through production regulations.
Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev recently confirmed that Kazakhstan is ready to adapt its production plans based on market conditions. However, for the moment, no significant change in production forecasts is envisaged. This position reflects a strategic balance aimed at reconciling international obligations with national growth imperatives, particularly with the completion of the expansion of the Tengiz field.
OPEC+ context: obligations and potential adjustments
OPEC+, bringing together the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Kazakhstan, is often under pressure to adjust production to maintain price stability on the global market. For several years, Kazakhstan has sometimes exceeded its production quotas, generating tensions within the group. However, he has committed to rectifying these excesses through “compensatory cuts”, planned until 2025.
The issue of compliance remains a key issue for OPEC+ members. Kazakhstan, although missing some targets, is working to improve its compliance with quotas. Last August, a drop in production caused by maintenance operations allowed the country to get closer to the levels expected by OPEC+. The Kazakh government shows its willingness to adjust according to market conditions, while maintaining its active participation within the organization.
Foreign investment and energy prospects
Tengiz’s production increase is supported by significant foreign investment, notably through the Tengizchevroil consortium, led by Chevron. This project, one of the most ambitious in Central Asia, represents a crucial opportunity for Kazakhstan to strengthen its export capabilities while diversifying its partnerships. At the KIOGE conference in Almaty, Suhail Mazrouei, Minister of Energy of the United Arab Emirates, reaffirmed the UAE’s interest in Kazakhstan’s energy resources. The Emirates supports initiatives to improve Kazakhstan’s logistics infrastructure, thereby reducing the country’s dependence on Russian oil pipelines.
Among the projects mentioned is the construction of a wind farm with a capacity of 1 GW, in partnership with the Emirati company Masdar. This cooperation highlights the growing importance of investments in energy infrastructure not only for oil, but also for other energy sources.
Market Impact and Price Outlook
Kazakh Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev expressed optimism about the outlook for oil prices. Although OPEC+ members have extended voluntary production cuts until December, there are signs of demand recovery, notably in India and the United States. This recovery could support crude prices in the coming months, despite recent concerns over possible weakness in demand.
The increase in production from Tengiz in 2025 could have significant repercussions on oil markets, particularly depending on global demand. Kazakhstan will therefore have to continue to finely adjust its strategy to reconcile its production ambitions with market fluctuations. Respecting OPEC+ commitments while optimizing exports will be crucial to maintaining long-term stability.
With these developments, Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a key player in the global energy landscape. However, balancing national growth and international commitments remains a strategic priority for the government.
