Week from September 30 to October 6: disrupted before gradual improvement
Reliability remains limited (65 to 70%) because discrepancies persist between the different weather models. The majority scenario sees the passage of new disturbances in the first part of the week before a slow improvement and the return of calmer and drier weather. Temperatures, initially below seasonal averages, will slowly rise again with possibly a beautiful and mild weekend on October 6.
Week from October 7 to 13: fairly calm weather becoming very cool again
Relatively calm weather conditions with anticyclonic border conditions could bring us a few nice days, especially in the northwest. But a new descent of polar air seems expected around the 10th. This development will require confirmation. In contrast, the Mediterranean will remain under more depressionary influence with a scattered but persistent risk of storms. There is currently no sign of a large-scale episode.
Week of October 14 to 20: more unstable weather trend
As indicated in the previous bulletin, more unsettled weather should return for the second half of the month. In a southwesterly flow, temperatures would be mild for a long time and above seasonal averages. In the chronology, this weather trend is unreliable (55%) and will have to be confirmed during the next update of our 4-week trend, next Thursday.
Week of October 21 to 27: parade of disruptions
The ocean flow is expected to persist. This is synonymous with alternation of disturbances and calms. Temperatures would remain a little above average with some temporary drops. To date, it is not possible to determine the chronology of this development.
Next update: every Thursday from 5 p.m.
