Vladimir Putin is toughening his tone. While the war in Ukraine is obviously still ongoing and Western support for kyiv is not weakening, the Russian president announced on September 25, 2024 new rules regarding the use of nuclear weapons. From now on, Moscow reserves the right to use atomic strikes in the event of a massive air attack against its territory. A warning that echoes the growing tensions between Russia, Ukraine and its allies.
New nuclear doctrine: Putin sends strong signal to the West
Vladimir Putin’s statement surprised the international community. According to him, Russia could use nuclear weapons if it faces a “massive attack” on its territory. “We will consider such a possibility if we receive reliable information about the massive launch of aerospace attack means and their crossing of our state border,” warned Vladimir Putin during a televised meeting with members of the Russian Security Council. An announcement that reflects a hardening of Russian military doctrine. Now, any attack supported by a nuclear state, even if it comes from a non-nuclear country like Ukraine, will be considered a joint aggression against Russia. This posture is clearly aimed at dissuading Ukraine and its Western allies from carrying out operations deep into Russian soil. The Kremlin, by insisting on the term “joint aggression”, is sending an unequivocal message to the United States and NATO countries.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, The threat of nuclear conflict is increasingly palpableThe Russian nuclear doctrine, updated in 2020, already provided for the defensive use of atomic weapons in the event of a large-scale attack threatening “the very existence of the state.” “We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Russia or Belarus,” the Russian president even specified, citing Moscow’s closest ally. However, this new position suggests a change in the use of nuclear weapons. For some Russian analysts, such as political scientist Sergei Karaganov, this nuclear deterrence is losing momentum in the face of growing Western military support for Ukraine. Karaganov even suggests in an interview with the newspaper Kommersant the introduction of the concept of “nuclear escalation” to strengthen Russia’s defensive posture.
A threat that sows concern at the UN
Putin’s statement comes as the United Nations General Assembly in New York puts support for Ukraine at the top of its agenda, in a move seen as an attempt to intimidate kyiv’s Western allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded by denouncing an escalation by Moscow, saying that Russia now appears to be planning attacks on Ukrainian nuclear facilities.He also warned of the risks that a “nuclear catastrophe” could occur if Russia continues to strike the Ukrainian energy system.
The West faces a difficult dilemma. Putin’s threat is clearly aimed at dissuading Ukraine’s allies from crossing certain red lines, including the use of long-range missiles against Russia. For now, the United States remains cautious and refuses to supply this type of weaponry to kyiv, fearing an escalation with serious consequences. However, the Kremlin’s strategy also relies on maintaining a certain ambiguity. By letting the nuclear threat hang in the air, Putin hopes to curb Western support without triggering open conflict with NATO’s nuclear powersA posture that some consider to be “aggressive sanctuarization,” aimed at protecting Russian interests while continuing hostilities in Ukraine.
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