© BERTRAND GUAY/AFP
– Michel Barnier will deliver his general policy speech on October 1.
A busy schedule. Tuesday, October 1st will mark a crucial day for the new Prime Minister. After revealing the composition of his government on Saturday, September 21st, Michel Barnier will have to face several major challenges. He will have to succeed in rallying his majority in the National Assembly, composed in particular of Les Républicains and Macronist deputies, while avoiding alienating the opposition. This comes at a time when attention has already been focused for several weeks on the highly anticipated vote on the 2025 budget.
As required by the Constitution, the ordinary session of the National Assembly opens on the first working day of October, that is, Tuesday, October 1. new deputieselected in the early legislative elections last July, will be able to resume work. The examination of draft laws, which had been interrupted following the announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly, will be able to resume immediately after the general policy speech by Michel Barnier. Because, Tuesday, October 1st, at 3 p.m.is also the date chosen by the head of government for this delicate exercise.
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Michel Barnier’s general policy speech awaited at the turning point
The general policy statement is not a constitutional obligation, but it has become a republican tradition over time. It is an opportunity for the Prime Minister to present the broad outlines of his program to the deputies. His speech will be simultaneously read in the Senate by another member of the government. Usually, at the end of the general policy speech, the head of government submits to a vote. Michel Barnier’s predecessors, Elisabeth Borne and Gabriel Attal, had chosen not to hold their government accountabledue to lack of a majority in the National Assembly. It is very likely that the new Prime Minister will adopt the same approach. This does not prevent Michel Barnier’s general policy statement from being highly anticipated.
As soon as the Savoyard was appointed head of government, the National Rally declared that it “will judge on the evidence” his speech. “We will decide whether this government has a future”said Jean-Philippe Tanguy, RN MP for the Somme, on France Inter on Monday, leaving hanging the threat of a motion of censure against the Barnier government. Eric Ciotti, who has just officially left the presidency of the LR party, also affirmed that he “would vote for a motion of censure if there are taxes that hit both the French and businesses“On the left, the NFP was more direct: it will vote in favour of a motion of censure.
Before being tabled, the motion of censure must first collect the signatures of one tenth of the members of the National Assembly. The government then has 48 hours to convince the last undecided before the vote. To be adopted, the motion must obtain at least 289 votes, which is more than an absolute majority. If this is the case, the Prime Minister must submit his resignation.
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A difficult timetable to keep for the Barnier government
To avoid a motion of censure, Michel Barnier is carefully refining his speech. The ministers have until Thursday to submit their proposals to the head of government. A “government seminar» is scheduled for Friday afternoon to define the broad outlines of the speech. At the same time, the Prime Minister is conducting consultations with the social partners and the presidents of the parliamentary groups. From October 2, the “questions to the government” sessions will resume. According to The Parisianthe group presidents in the National Assembly have decided to maintain the rhythm of two weekly sessions, on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. The ministers of the Barnier government will thus have to answer questions from the deputies.
October 1 also marks the deadline for the submission of the 2025 finance bill in the National Assembly. However, the initial timetable has been slightly modified due to the delay in drafting the budget text. Michel Barnier has already announced a postponement, from 1 to 9 October. The new ministerial team, which took office this weekend, has a few extra days to fine-tune the budget “reversible” prepared by Gabriel Attal and his government.
For now, the government appears to be on schedule. Budget and Public Accounts Minister Laurent Saint-Martin said Wednesday he would present the 2025 budget proposal “in two weeks” before Parliament, on October 9. In accordance with Article 47 of the Constitution, Parliament has 70 days to examine the draft finance billThe final text must be promulgated in the Official Journal before December 31, 2024.
