The price of gold continues to fluctuate in a narrow range, holding below its all-time high reached the previous day. While the precious metal is enjoying some support, expectations around a further 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in November did not allow theUSD to capitalize on the solid recovery observed the day before, slowed by uncertain economic prospects.
Also read: Gold soon to reach $3,000?
Investors eagerly await statements from key Fed members
Financial markets remain in a state of waiting, with palpable nervousness, before readjusting their positions on gold. Indeed, bullish traders prefer to wait for speeches from influential members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)including that of the Fed chairman, Jerome Powellscheduled for later today. These statements are key to understanding the future direction of interest rates and the evolution of the USD, which are crucial elements for the short-term direction of the gold price.
What is the price of a gold bar today? | ||||
| Price of gold per gram per carat | Price/g | |||
| 999 gold | 999.9 ‰ | or 24 carats | 76,9287 | € |
| Gold 917 | 917 ‰ | or 22 carats | 70,5507 | € |
| 900 gold | 900 ‰ | or 21.6 carats | 69,2428 | € |
| 750 gold | 750 ‰ | or 18 carats | 57,7023 | € |
| Gold 585 | 585 ‰ | or 14 carats | 45,0078 | € |
| Gold 375 | 375 ‰ | or 9 carats | 28,8512 | € |
| Gold 333 | 333 ‰ | or 8 carats | 25,6198 | € |
| GOLD | teeth | or 2% | 15,3873 | € |
| (Prices constantly changing – Sources Bdor.fr) | ||||
Market expectations for another rate cut have been fueled by a series of recent statements by Fed officials, who have attempted to temper expectations for more aggressive monetary easing. Despite these attempts, the market continues to price in a higher probability of a 50 basis point cut in November. It is against this backdrop that Fed officials’ speech Powell will be scrutinized with particular attention for any indication of the future trajectory of interest rates.
In parallel, expected US economic data, such as the final publication of the Second quarter GDPthe usual ones weekly unemployment benefit claims and the durable goods ordersshould also provide elements to assess the health of the American economy and, consequently, to determine future fluctuations in the gold price.
Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties keep gold under pressure
In addition to economic issues, the global geopolitical context continues to play a key role in the dynamics of the gold market. Growing tensions in Middle East add an additional level of volatility to financial markets as investors seek to protect themselves against the risks of military escalation and prolonged conflicts. Goldtraditionally seen as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, is seeing demand bolstered by these fears.
At the same time, concerns about the economic recovery in Chinadespite the recent stimulus announcements, are weighing on market sentiment. While the first announcements of economic stimulus had generated some optimism, doubts about their effectiveness in countering a global slowdown quickly surfaced. This combination of factors contributes to the attractiveness of gold, even if price movements remain relatively limited while waiting for clearer signals from the US monetary authorities.
Gold in consolidation phase before a potential rebound
From a technical point of view, the current situation of the gold price is marked by consolidation within a narrow range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is indicating overbought conditions, which is dampening the appetite of bullish traders to take new significant positions. However, the recent breakout of a short-term ascending trend channel remains a positive signal for the outlook of the precious metal.
This breakout suggests that the path of least resistance for gold could be oriented upwards, although the current fluctuations can be seen as an accumulation phase before a new rise. In this context, the pullbacks towards the broken resistance zone of the ascending channel, located around $2,625are seen as attractive buying opportunities, with strong support near the $2,600.
A break below this latter level could, however, prompt technical selling, which would cause the price of gold to decline towards the regions of $2,575 And $2,560with further fallback potential up to $2,535-$2,530corresponding to a former resistance which became support.
Markets await further decisions
Attention remains focused on global economic and geopolitical developments. While tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties in China continue to support the price of gold, Fed decisions and US economic data will be key to the future course of the market. Investors are keeping a close eye on statements from Fed officials, looking for clues about the direction of interest rates and their implications for the global economy.
The outcome of this period of uncertainty may well define the next significant move in the price of gold, as financial markets attempt to navigate between growing risks and potential opportunities.
