Surprising results in Arizona
Trump would thus be leading in Arizona, with 50% of voting intentions against 45% for Harris, as well as in Georgia (with 49% against 45%), two states that he had lost to Joe Biden in 2020. The results obtained in Arizona are particularly surprising, since Harris held a five percentage point lead in the last poll, conducted in August. This trend would be explained by a loss of support among the Latino electorate.
In North Carolina, he would have a less comfortable lead, 49% to 47%, in a region that has not voted for a Democrat since 2008. However, a recent scandal could reshuffle the cards in this state by having a negative impact on Trump’s scores. Current Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson is currently under fire after the publication of controversial messages on a pornographic forum. An event that occurred largely after the polling period, which extended from September 17 to 21.
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One of the tightest presidential races in history
According to the New York Times, these results augur one of the tightest presidential races in history, with American journalist Nate Cohn assuring that “These latest results are among the best obtained by Donald Trump in these states in weeks.“
For her part, Democratic opponent Kamala Harris has tried, so far successfully, to establish her dominance in other key Midwestern states such as Pennsylvania, on which her hopes of reaching the White House rest. Her fight is therefore taking place on several fronts, including the Southern states, where she will have to try to make up ground on her opponent. That being said, she could still win the election if she loses North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, according to analysts.
