Who To Target for Fantasy Premier League 2024/25 Gameweek 5?
Welcome to our Fantasy Premier League (FPL) guide for Gameweek 5!
In this weekly series, we analyze the standout performers from the previous Gameweek, review the latest FPL transfer trends, and highlight the must-have players to target for the upcoming Gameweek.
Stay ahead in your FPL journey with our expert insights and strategic tips!
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FPL Gameweek 5: Which Players to Target?
Expected FPL Points Review – A look at the Stats
Watkins tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 4 with a score of 14.6. No player took more shots in the box (six) than the England international over the weekend and he was also top for ‘big chances’ (three).
Amad was the most creative player with six attempted assists, however none of these were classified as a ‘big chance’ by Opta which meant a low xFPL score of just 3.9.
Haaland was joint-top for shots on target (four) alongside Watkins, the Norwegian international scored an xFPL score of just 9.6 as only one of his six attempts was classified as a ‘big chance’.
Salah had a disappointing weekend by his standards, the 32-year-old took just two shots in the box and attempted just one assist, he had no ‘big chance’ involvements at all and only managed an xFPL score of 3.2.
What is xFPL?
xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combines as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (ie shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.
Early FPL Transfer Activity Analyzed – Which Players are FPL managers buying and selling?
As the below image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Haaland is the most popular transfer in for Gameweek 4 so far with over 100,000 FPL managers bringing him in already.
Despite his blank against Forest, over 100,000 FPL managers have brought in Luis Díaz while Watkins, Smith Rowe and Vardy have also seen nearly 100,000 transfers in.
Isak’s early substitution has seen nearly 150,000 FPL managers part ways with the Swedish international while João Pedro’s omission has also seen 130,000 managers sell the Brazilian international.
Isak to Watkins is the most popular forward transfer combination while Muniz to Calvert-Lewin or Vardy is also popular. Amongst midfielders, Mbeumo and Salah dominate the transfers in with Gordon, Diogo J., and Saka making way. In defense, Gvardiol accounts for seven of the top 10 defender transfer combinations with Robertson, Aina and Digne popular.
Calvert-Lewin vs Vardy – Which Budget Forward should FPL managers buy?
As the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, Calvert-Lewin (326) and Vardy (330) have both started all four matches for their respective sides over the first four Gameweeks with the former scoring three more FPL points (22 vs 19) than the latter.
As the above image shows, both forwards have scored the same number of goals (two) but Calvert-Lewin’s underlying numbers are significantly superior. The Toffees’ forward beats Vardy for shots (six vs three), ‘Expected Goals’ (xG) (1.32 vs 0.74), shots in the box (six vs three) and ‘Expected Assists’ (xA) (0.36 vs 0.15).
As the above image from our Fixture Difficulty Ratings feature shows, Everton and Leicester are ranked fourth and fifth for ‘Attack Difficulty’ over the next six Gameweeks but Leicester have the game away to Arsenal in Gameweek six which tilts the scales towards Calvert-Lewin.
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