Fighting between Ukraine and Russia continues to rage, particularly on the front in the east of the country. But Vladimir Putin’s troops only have a few months left to win the war, in terms of soldiers and weapons, according to some experts.
A decisive year. In February 2022, the“special military operation” of Vladimir Putin began in Ukraine. This should have been rapid according to the master of the Kremlin, but a little more than two years later, Russian troops are struggling to achieve their objectives. The debate on a possible victory for Russia, particularly with regard to reserves of men and armor, is very divisive, according to experts.
Gigantic resources
To carry out its battles on the front lines, Russia has numerous armored vehicles, battle tanks and effective artillery which considerably weakens Ukraine. According to the researcher in arms and defense industry at the Center for Security Studies of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) Léo Péria-Peigner, Vladimir Putin’s troops have a gigantic stock of equipment manufactured during the Soviet era, indicates the magazine Geo.
In the air, Moscow’s losses would number in the hundreds according to kyiv, but this would not represent “that” 10% of what Russia actually has, assures Christopher Cavoli, head of NATO in Europe.
According to a note from the‘International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), some analysts therefore say the army of the master of the Kremlin could continue their assaults for two or three, as indicated in an article by The Economist.
“The clock is ticking”
But other experts see this duration much shorter: only two months, assures journalist David Ax to Forbes. According to him, “the clock is ticking” And “Russia uses resources that it cannot replace”. Davis Ax estimates that the $60 billion in American aid, currently on hold,
According to him, the aid of 60 billion dollars still pending before the House vote, on which the goodwill of Mike Johnson depends, would effectively allow Ukraine to stop the Russian advances of recent weeks. Then to resume their war of attrition: in defense, the troops under the yellow and blue flag inflict more damage on those of Russia than the reverse. And despite his full mobilization, “Russia uses resources that it cannot replace”writes David Ax.
A study by the Estonian Ministry of Defense explains that the damage inflicted on Russia, namely the 1,000 killed or wounded per day, or the hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles destroyed each year, could undermine the Kremlin’s military plans.
“2024 represents the last significant opportunity for Russia to make substantial gains in Ukraine from a military perspective”, analyzes a Finnish expert, relayed on X (formerly Twitter) by Arthur Rehi, Estonian reserve soldier. The future of this conflict therefore remains completely uncertain and continues to divide.
