Netherlands-Türkiye: a festival of goals in perspective?

The last quarter-final of Euro 2024, this Saturday (9 p.m.), pits the Netherlands against Turkey.

If the match does not appear to be the sexiest of this “final 8”, it could nevertheless produce a fireworks display of goals.

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Euro 2024

Since the start of this Euro, the show has not always been on the pitches on which we expected it. Thus, if several clashes have given birth to mice – the latest of which is that between France and Belgium (1-0) -, some confrontations less rated on paper have turned out to be much more open. This logic could be repeated during the quarter-finals: while a lot is expected from the Germany-Spain and Portugal-France matches, goals could abound on the side of… Netherlands-Turkey (live on TF1, streaming on TF1+ and live commentary on TF1info). Several data allow us to be convinced of this.

Firstly, recent history suggests a particularly prolific head-to-head. Indeed, 13 goals have been scored in the last two matches between these two nations (Turkey’s 4-2 victory in March 2021 and the Dutch’s 6-1 success in September of the same year). This represents a tidy average of 6.5 goals per match.

Two playful… and realistic selections

Furthermore, in this competition, both teams have scored and conceded many goals. On the one hand, Turkey has scored 10 goals and conceded 6, making a total of 16 goals, all in the space of four games. This means that, on average, 4 goals are scored every time Vincenzo Montella’s players are on the pitch. On the other hand, Orange have deceived the opposing goalkeeper 7 times, while finding the ball in the back of their net 4 times, for a total of 11 goals. In fact, each of their outings produces an average of 2.75 goals.

Looking even closer at the numbers, all indicators are green. According to Opta, the Netherlands have created the sixth highest volume of chances since their arrival at the Euro (6.56 expected goals – a statistical tool for assessing the quality of a shot, and more precisely the probability that a shot will be converted into a goal – since the start of the tournament). Turkey comes in eighth place in this regard (6.11 expected). Another telling statistic is that the Dutch have shot 63 times (5th highest total) while the Turks have done slightly worse (57 attempts, 6th highest total). It should also be noted that Crescent-Stars is the team that has conceded the most shots in this edition (59).

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Suffice to say that a goalless draw after 90 minutes seems particularly unlikely. A reason, if one were needed, to be in front of TF1, this Saturday, from 9 p.m.

Maxence GEVIN



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