Jan 23, 2025, 11:50 PM and
Will Aryna Sabalenka claim her third straight Australian Open title? Or will Madison Keys pull off another huge upset to win her first Grand Slam title? Our experts weigh in on who will capture the Australian Open women’s title.
What can Keys do to defeat Sabalenka?
Rennae Stubbs: Keys has to believe she is capable of doing this. It’s going to come down to her mentality and if she truly believes she is good enough. Because she sure is. The tennis she has displayed this entire Australian summer has been outstanding. She has bigger weapons than any player on tour; it’s just a matter of belief.
Jarryd Barca: It’s been a terrific tournament for the 29-year-old who now has just one more obstacle to navigate in order to claim her first major: the world No. 1. Has she got the tools? Yep, and her powerful serve and forehand combination has troubled so many on her way to the final, including Iga Swiatek.
Will she cope with the challenge mentally? It seems like she’s in a great place there as well, as her gutsy semifinal — saving match points and applying relentless pressure — showcased. She can do it, but she needs to maintain her intensity from the very outset. Sabalenka won’t allow the same comeback opportunities Keys seemed to capitalize on on Thursday night, so avoiding the early deficit will be critical. If she starts strong, she’s got a chance.
Bill Connelly: Honestly, the whole thing might come down to whether she can at least do occasional damage to Sabalenka’s serve. Let’s put it this way: Keys has played 15 matches against players ranked either first or second in her career. She’s 0-8 with zero sets won when taking under 36% of her return points, and she’s 2-5 with a couple of three-set losses (including the 2023 US Open semifinal heartbreaker against Sabalenka) when she’s over 36%. In her two wins over Swiatek in this sample, she was at 49% and 51%, and while that’s almost certainly unattainable against the big-serving Sabalenka, getting to even 40% would probably have beaten Sabalenka in 2023. Keys is serving as well as ever early this year, but the return could tell the tale.
D’Arcy Maine: Keys has been open about the toll the 2023 US Open semifinal loss to Sabalenka took on her. She utilized some of what she learned from that defeat in her victory over Swiatek, especially during the tight moments, and she will need to do that again Saturday. During her news conference after the semis, Keys praised Sabalenka’s ability to play loose, no matter the circumstances, and essentially force her opponents into playing her game — but also said she has tried to emulate that same fearless, attacking style since their meeting in New York. If Keys is able to do that and perhaps throw Sabalenka slightly off, and remain as confident and poised as she has throughout the fortnight, the title is certainly within reach.
Jake Michaels: It might sound silly, but Keys needs to believe she can dethrone the two-time Australian Open champion. So many Sabalenka challengers head into a match with that mindset but quickly appear to lose self-belief when forced to defend her relentless attacks. Keys has to believe in herself throughout the match. She has proved this fortnight in Melbourne she has the skill, power and finesse to not only trouble Sabalenka but capture that elusive Grand Slam title.
What can Sabalenka do to defeat Keys?
Stubbs: Sabalenka has to use her experience in these moments, and especially here in Melbourne. She has to continue to serve her spots well and try to get Keys moving. In the end, she has to withstand the power, stay mentally strong and use all the experience that she now has in Slam finals.
Barca: Sabalenka will know she’s coming up against an opponent who can match her in the hard-hitting department, so she’ll want to avoid long rallies and being forced on the back foot, which she doesn’t experience often. We’ve seen when her first serve percentage is up she can open up the court and be devastating with her groundstrokes, so her efficiency on that first serve is absolutely step one. She’ll also need the awareness of adding variety to her play if rallies do extend, mixing in slices, more angles and net approaches to disrupt Keys’ rhythm and keep the American guessing.
Connelly: She needs to be prepared for the bigger serve that Keys seems to be bringing into battle at the moment, but honestly, the biggest thing is simply to play her game. Sabalenka has never lost to Keys on a hard court, and she hasn’t lost in Melbourne since Kaia Kanepi took her down more than three years ago. She’s got a dominant serve, solid return and all the confidence in the world. It’s up to Keys to prove she can hit this level.
Maine: Sabalenka has won 20 straight matches on Rod Laver Arena, has dropped just one set in Melbourne on her way back to the final — and just two sets in total in her past 11 matches — and has a 4-1 career record over Keys. She knows exactly what it takes to win on Saturday. She certainly has the edge and the experience, so, for her, it might be a mental challenge more than anything. Sabalenka has the chance to become the first woman since Martina Hingis (1997-1999) to win three consecutive titles in Melbourne, so she will need to make sure she doesn’t let the moment feel too big or put any added pressure on herself. She has shown no signs of any of that leading up to this point, but she will simply have to treat Saturday as just another match.
Michaels: Sabalenka really doesn’t have to change her approach. She has comfortably been the best player at the tournament for the third consecutive year, and nobody appears to be able to slow her down. So long as she continues playing that aggressive but calculated style of tennis, she will be tremendously tough to beat Saturday night.
-Who will win?
Barca: This has all the makings of a tightly contested battle, but I still think the game is on the racket of Sabalenka. The world No. 1 holds a 4-1 head-to-head advantage over Keys, whose lone win came on grass. And while the American’s underdog status will inevitably help her — avoiding the added weight of expectation that Sabalenka is dealing with — it’s the two-time champion’s tactical playmaking and ability to control the aggression in her shots that give her the edge, and I don’t see her slipping up. Sabalenka will win in close but straight sets.
Connelly: I never bet against a streak. Keys beat Swiatek despite the fact that Swiatek was actually playing pretty well; Keys has proved through the years that when everything’s clicking, she has top-five upside. But Sabalenka has top-one upside. Keys believes she can get the job done, but Sabalenka knows she can (and has reams of evidence). We’ll make a nod toward Keys’ form and predict that she takes a set here, but Sabalenka rolls in the third.
Maine: Logically speaking, Sabalenka is undoubtedly the favorite, but there’s just something about Keys’ run that feels unstoppable right now. She has been close to winning a major before — she said she has thought about the 2017 US Open final “endlessly” since — and also is painfully aware of how hard these opportunities are to come by. No matter what Swiatek did in the third set of their semifinal clash, Keys refused to back down and just kept digging deeper. I just don’t see her falling short this time: Keys in three very tightly contested sets.
Michaels: If anyone has the weapons to unsettle Sabalenka, it’s Keys. She’s ultra-aggressive, strikes the ball with extreme force and is always looking to paint the lines. With that said, this is Sabalenka’s final to lose. The world No. 1 has won 20 consecutive matches at Melbourne Park and more often than not has looked unplayable. Sabalenka also has so much to play for. If she beats Keys, she will become the first woman to three-peat Down Under this century. I just don’t see her losing.
Betting the women’s final
Pamela Maldonado: The stage is set for a power-packed showdown. Both players bring explosive games and big-match experience to the table, but with contrasting styles and recent form. Let’s break down the matchup and find the best betting angle.
Sabalenka has been nothing short of a powerhouse in this tournament, combining raw power, razor-sharp consistency and unshakable mental toughness. She’s not just here to compete; she’s here to dominate, and that makes her the clear favorite in this matchup. Both Sabalenka and Keys pack plenty of firepower, but Sabalenka’s ability to harness her aggression and stay composed gives her a serious edge. Her serve, once her Achilles’ heel, has turned into a straight-up weapon. With fewer double faults and pinpoint efficiency, she has been blasting past opponents and keeping them on their back foot from the first ball.
When it comes to dictating points, Sabalenka’s booming groundstrokes and deep, heavy shots will be the ultimate game changer. Keys, while undeniably dangerous, has a tendency to overhit when the pressure is on, something Sabalenka is primed to exploit. By keeping Keys pinned deep behind the baseline and forcing her into a reactive game, Sabalenka can neutralize her opponent’s biggest weapons and take complete control of the match.
More important, I trust Sabalenka’s composure in the big moments. Keys admitted to battling nerves during her semifinal tiebreak against Swiatek, saying, “I feel like at the end, we were both kind of battling some nerves.” That mental vulnerability could be the opening Sabalenka needs to deliver a decisive victory.
Let’s not ignore the cracks in Keys’ game. In her semifinal against Swiatek, Keys looked gassed in the tiebreak, with fatigue leading to sloppy errors and long returns. Add to that her struggles with defensive play — especially against agile, powerful players like Sabalenka — and it’s clear she’ll have a hard time staying in rallies or countering effectively.
The Bet: Sabalenka 2-0 (-115) vs. Keys
Sabalenka’s edge in fitness, versatility and mental strength puts this matchup firmly in her hands. Expect her to keep Keys off balance with a mix of explosive returns and varied serves, taking away any rhythm Keys might hope to find. By reaching the 2025 final, Sabalenka has become only the eighth player in the Open era to reach three consecutive women’s singles finals at the Australian Open. Watch her snag her third straight Australian Open title in dominating fashion.
If you are holding a Sabalenka futures (+200 at start of tournament) based on previous predictions from myself and André Snellings, you let that ticket ride and you are in a great position of value.
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