Here are four things to watch for in this Championship Sunday showdown between the Bills and Chiefs:
1) Do the Chiefs dare blitz Josh Allen this time? The Bills have been a more balanced offense in 2024, dialing back on Allen’s pass attempts and running the ball slightly more often. The result has been arguably Allen’s most efficient season on a play-by-play basis, reducing his sacks and interceptions significantly. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spaguolo has never truly slowed Allen down in their numerous meetings, and it’s worth questioning if the Chiefs need to blitz less often in this game. On the one hand, that has been their bread and butter — and the Chiefs are far more effective getting pressure with extra rushers. But on the other hand, Allen has handled the blitz exceptionally well — both historically against Kansas City and this season on the whole.
The Chiefs blitzed at a 35.8% rate this season, which was the highest in the NFL, and they did so at an even higher rate (37.8%) in Week 11. Allen threw one foolish (and uncharacteristic, for this season) interception versus pressure in that game, but he otherwise handled the Chiefs, not taking a single sack.
Spagnuolo took a far more conservative approach in the 2023 Divisional Round meeting against Allen and the Bills, blitzing a mere 17.8% of his dropbacks — the lowest blitz rate for any Chiefs games over the past two seasons, per Next Gen Stats — and it seemed to work. Allen was 5 of 6 passing for 48 yards against the blitz, but on non-blitz passes he was only 21 for 33 for 138 yards, yielding a meager 4.2 yards per pass attempt.
Of course, a lot depends on the battle up front. Chris Jones and a strong Chiefs front will be battling with the Bills’ elite offensive line. Offensive tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown have anchored the edges, the unit is solid up the middle and Buffalo has also leaned on sixth OL Alec Anderson as a regular contributor, especially in the run game.
Jones has only one sack in eight games against the Bills, but he notched seven pressures versus Allen in Week 11 and caused problems up front. Regardless, he’ll need more help this time around. George Karlaftis is coming off his first career three-sack game against the Texans, but he was held quiet last time in Buffalo. Charles Omenihu, who missed the first meeting, also has come on as a pressure source. If the Chiefs are going to rush four more often than normal, they’ll all need to be highly effective penetrating into the backfield.
2) Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs trying to continue ball-control success. The Bills were the stingiest team in terms of giveaways, turning the ball over a mere eight times all season, including playoffs. But the Chiefs somehow are on an even better roll with turnovers recently.
-The last time Kansas City turned the ball over in a game? That would be the two it had — both Mahomes picks — in the last meeting in Week 11. Since then, the Chiefs have forced 11 opponent turnovers, with zero fumbles or interceptions of their own.
Not shockingly, that formula has been a big part of their success. The Chiefs have now won 37 straight games, dating back to 2019, when they’ve won the turnover battle. They even beat the Bills in that 2023 Divisional game despite being minus-1 in turnovers that contest — the only NFL team to win a playoff game in the negative since the 2022 Divisional Round.
It has been harder for the Chiefs to hang onto the football against the Bills traditionally, as Buffalo holds a net plus-7 turnover margin in their last 10 meetings. That’s the Bills’ M.O.: They want to turn you over. Buffalo’s defense has suffered enough attrition that its not geared to shut down high-powered offenses; its best path is stealing possessions, as the group did in the first meeting (plus-1 in turnovers).
The Bills finished the regular season tied for third in turnovers created (32), and they’ve added three more in the playoffs. Getting to Mahomes and getting hands on his passes is surely a big part of Sean McDermott’s game plan for Sunday. But Mahomes will bring a 262-pass INT-less streak into the conference title game.
The Bills got pressure rushing four on Mahomes’ first pass attempt in Week 11, and he overthrew his receiver for an interception. That pressure continued on the next series, but its effectiveness did wane a bit over the course of the game. Something similar played out last week in Buffalo, as the Bills defense started out with high energy and effectiveness on the whole but appeared to run low on gas by game’s end.
Protecting Mahomes is a mostly strong offensive line that nonetheless has had to adapt. Joe Thuney has done his best since sliding out to left tackle, but he’s had his hands full as a pass blocker. Buffalo’s Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa have had good seasons, but they’ll need to heat the edges up better than they did against the Ravens. On the flip side, the Chiefs’ right side — Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor — also had trouble handling the Bills’ rush in the previous meeting.
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