Real Madrid did what it had to do on this seventh day of the league phase of the Champions League and easily beat Red Bull Salzburg at the Santiago Bernabéu. A comfortable victory (5-1) with which the whites have improved their score, which stands at 12 points, and also the general ‘goal-average’, something very important in this new Champions League format. He started the day with a meager +1, but thanks to the victory against Salzburg he finished it with +5.
Now the question is: can Real Madrid qualify directly for the Champions League round of 16? And the answer is: it is not impossible, but it is very difficult. Before starting the day, Opta’s projection computer gave Madrid just a 0.9% chance of finishing in the top eight: 0.1% of being seventh and 0.8% of being eighth. And this day has been beneficial for Madrid in that sense, since teams that are going to be playing for those last places with the whites They have lost and, therefore, they have tightened the fight: Leverkusen, Lille, Brest, Aston Villa lost…
But even so, Madrid has it very difficult. What is certain is that he already has a guaranteed pass for the play-in to access the round of 16, that play-off phase that will add two more games to the calendar.. And it is also certain that, to fight for a direct pass to the round of 16, they need to beat Brest in Guingamp on January 29 (9:00 p.m.), on the last day, which will also be unified. Madrid ends the seventh day in 16th place, with five teams tied on 12 points: the whites, Dortmund, Bayern, Juventus and Glasgow Celtic. Although Celtic barely have a +1 in the ‘goal-average’, so they are practically ruled out for that fight.
If a team with 15 points qualifies for the round of 16, it will be from that group, with Dortmund ahead with a +8 at the moment. They are followed by Bayern (+7), Madrid (+5) and Juventus (+4). And among the teams with 15 points at the moment are Atleti, with a +5, and Milan, with a +4. Therefore, it is in Madrid’s interest to win with the greatest possible advantage against Brest to be the team with 15 points and the best goal difference and it also needs setbacks from the teams that are in a position to reach or overcome that barrier. For example, Atalanta (14) loses at Barça’s home; that Leverkusen (13) cannot beat Sparta Prague in Germany; and more of the same from Aston Villa (13) at home against Celtic; Monaco (13) in Milan against Inter; and Lille and Feyenoord, both with 13 points, who play in France on the last day, in which case Madrid is interested in a draw to overcome both. Of course, as long as they beat Brest, which also has 13 points. And it obviously requires Milan, who visits Dinamo Zagreb, and Atleti, in Salzburg against Red Bull, to lose their games.
-Enlarge
The average projections right now indicate that the cutoff for the Top-8 will be slightly above 15 points, but that cutoff may be reduced in the final day, if the stars align. In any case, Madrid’s chances are few: just 2.9% according to Opta projections. And right now, due to the new format, The play-in draw would pair Bayern (15th) or Madrid (16th) with Juventus (17th) and Celtic (18th). And once that round is over, in the round of 16 it would be the first, which is now Liverpool, or the second, which is Barcelona. What is clear is that, if Madrid does not manage to get into the top eight, it must try to finish as high as possible to guarantee a more favorable draw. For example, those who finish 9th or 10th will see themselves in the play-in with 23rd or 24th, and then in the round of 16 with 7th or 8th. Although there is no guarantee: City and PSG have a good chance of qualifying in those last places in the cut for the play-in…
Follow the Diario AS channel on WhatsAppwhere you will find all the sport in a single space: the current news of the day, the agenda with the latest news of the most important sporting events, the most outstanding images, the opinion of the best AS brands, reports, videos, and some humor from time to time.
Related News :