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Will Świątek overtake Sabalenka in the ranking? We checked what needs to happen

During the Grand Slam Australian Open, Iga Świątek and Aryna Sabalenka are fighting not only for the final triumph in the event. A separate fight takes place for the first place in the WTA world ranking.

Świątek can only gain in the ranking

In this case, our tennis player is in a better position. A year ago she reached the third round and now she repeated this result, thanks to which she has already defended all points. Each subsequent victory will improve her achievements.

The Belarusian, however, won the final triumph in Melbourne in 2024. Therefore, if she does not defend the title, she will lose a lot of points and then after the tournament there will be an option that she will drop to second place in the ranking, which the Pole will benefit from.

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At the moment, everyone lives in the “live” ranking, in which last year's achievements were collected at the beginning of the tournament. Świątek is in the lead because after reaching the third round he has 8,120 points.

Sabalenka, in turn, played one more match and on Thursday (January 17) entered the fourth round after defeating Denmark's Clara Tauson 7:6 (5), 6:4. Thanks to this, he now has 7896 “meshes”.

Will Sabalenka be dethroned? Here are the variants

Currently, there are several scenarios in which Świątek will return to first place in the ranking after the Australian Open. One of them is very simple. Our tennis player must win the tournament and then Sabalenka's result will not interest her.

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Another one is the defeat of the Belarusian before the semi-final. Then the Polish woman's final performance will not matter, because her biggest rival will lose a lot of points.

In the third scenario, it should be assumed that Sabalenka will be eliminated in the mentioned semi-final. In such a case, Świątek will only overtake her when she also reaches this phase of the tournament. However, advancing to the final of one of them will immediately give the Belarusian or Polish woman first place in the ranking.

Therefore, our tennis player is currently in a comfortable position. Her biggest rival must win two more matches to be able to maintain the lead in the ranking. If he achieves this, Świątek will need the same result. After that, everything may depend on advancing to the final or the final triumph.

To advance to the fourth round, in which Sabalenka is already in, the Pole will face the British Emma Raducanu on Saturday, January 18 at 1:30 our time. A day later, the Belarusian will fight for the quarterfinals against the Russian Mirra Andreeva.

Jakub Fordon, journalist of WP SportoweFakty

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