Thanks for joining us. Here are five key takeaways from the December US Consumer Price Index report, released Wednesday:
- The headline CPI rose 0.4% from November, matching economists forecasts, with energy prices accounting for more than 40% of the increase. Energy surged 2.6% on the month, with gasoline, fuel oil and propane all seeing their biggest monthly advances of the year.
- Core CPIwhich excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2%, less than the median forecast for a 0.3% gain. That marked the first monthly slowdown in core inflation since June. Both rent and owners’ equivalent rent (homeowners’ estimated housing costs) picked up from November, but the 0.3% gains for each were notably weaker than most months since inflation soared in the spring of 2021.
- Airfarescar prices, medical care and vehicle insurance prices helped drive the core CPI rise, with personal care, communication, and alcoholic beverages among the few major categories seeing a drop in prices.
- The year-on-year core inflation rate slowed to 3.2% in December from 3.3% the previous month, marking the first drop since July. The all-items CPI rose 2.9% over 12 months, accelerating from 2.7% in November. Economists said the core inflation slowdown is good news for the Federal Reserve, but cautioned that more months of positive data would be needed to bring further interest-rate cuts into view.
- Both Treasuries and stock futures rallied in response to the slowdown in core monthly inflation, while the dollar tumbled. Ten-year Treasury yields were down about 13 basis points as of 9:19 a.m., at 4.66%, while contracts on the S&P 500 were up 1.4%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0.5%.
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