And this time? Four reasons why Real Clásico and Supercopa wins

Real’s defense has noticeably stabilized

The offense wins games, the defense wins championships (or titles). An old joke that proves to be true again and again. And there is no question that Madrid’s defensive department was anything but at title level in the first phase of the season. But it is precisely in this aspect that the inglorious 4-0 Clásico defeat in the first half of the season and the 3-1 defeat against AC Milan in the premier class a few days later seem to represent a turning point in this season. Since the defeat against the Italians, they have kept six clean sheets in twelve games and now have an average goals conceded of 1.0 in the league. If we manage to reduce this to below zero in the next few weeks, this would be another important step towards defending the league title.

Although there are occasional slip-ups like the 3-3 draw against Rayo Vallecano or encounters with entirely avoidable goals conceded like the 4-2 win over Sevilla, overall Los Blancos seem much more stable and allow significantly fewer big chances. Ancelotti recently emphasized again and again that they had identified “the problem” from the start of the season and now have a much better balance. However: In the air and boxing defense, Rüdiger and Co. repeatedly reveal weaknesses at times. You should try to avoid mistakes like that against Robert Lewandowski.

Ancelotti has found his system and his starting eleven

There are of course team reasons why we were able to stabilize defensively. After Ancelotti didn’t seem to really know at the beginning of the season – similar to the beginning of last season – what his best possible team would be and what tactical scheme he would use to send them onto the pitch, this discovery phase also seems to have been completed. In the 4-2-3-1, Ancelotti can deploy the attack line consisting of Vinícius, Mbappé and Rodrygo as well as position Bellingham centrally behind them, where the Englishman’s strengths are best showcased. The double six with Fede Valverde plus either Eduardo Camavinga or Dani Ceballos also gives you adequate protection in the center and, depending on the opponent, the appropriate options for building up the game. The balance that Ancelotti so much advocated has apparently finally been found.

And then there would be the option with Camavinga as a left-back in order to get both the Frenchman and Ceballos, who is strong on the ball and play, onto the field. A variation that is quite likely to be used against Barcelona and that Ancelotti was happy to use in the Clásicos in the past. Since Mendy hasn’t been in the best of form recently and Real’s all-rounder could be a good counterpart to Yamal anyway due to his profile, Ancelotti is likely to actually lean in this direction.

Barcelona is weakening – teamwise and institutionally

While things changed for the better over the course of the weeks after the bitter Clásico defeat for the Royals, the development for the Catalans more or less turned into the opposite. Since then, the “Blaugrana” has only been able to win two of eight league games. In contrast, there are two draws and four defeats. The six points lead over Los Blancos has turned into five points behind in the last two months. And Hansi Flick’s team is currently not only in a crisis of results after the exhilarating start to the season, but there has also been a noticeable break in terms of play in recent times. On the one hand, the team seems to have to pay tribute to Flick’s physically demanding game at times, but on the other hand, the opponents are increasingly able to adapt better to the aggressive pressing and the high defensive chain. The injury-related loss of Lamine Yamal (ankle injury) did the rest, and the heavy strain of the summer and at the start of the season also left its mark on the Spanish European champions.

But it’s not just sport that’s been a mess in Barcelona over the last few weeks, there’s also a lot of trouble institutionally. The farce surrounding the registration of summer newcomers Dani Olmo and Pau Víctor caused a huge international stir and, above all, divided the league. And it should be clear that such background noise does not leave a team without a trace. Among other things, Raphinha caused a stir when he let it be known at the press conference before the Supercopa semi-final against Bilbao (2-0) that he had the feeling that the club was not giving the best public image at the moment: “If I were at another club and saw the situation with Víctor and Olmo, maybe I would think about moving to Barça.”

The offense is running hot and the Bellingham factor

Speaking of Bellingham: The Englishman has probably been the most consistent and best Madrid player since the start of the season, but there were still many critical voices in the first few months because the goal percentages were not at the same level as last season. But that has also changed drastically since the Clásico in October: Since then, the Englishman has nine goals and five assists from twelve games across all competitions, quite a few of which were decisive in the game. The 21-year-old is benefiting noticeably from the system change and the more central position, which allows him to make far more deep runs into the penalty area than in the early months of the season and can therefore exploit his goal threat better again.

But it’s not just the Englishman who has been running hot in the last few weeks, the rest of the offensive team is also now at operating temperature. Kylian Mbappé seems to have put his teething problems behind him and currently has a decent 13 goals this season, Vinícius Júnior has the same number plus an impressive seven assists. Compatriot Rodrygo has been getting better and better in the last few weeks after recurring injury problems and in Brahim Díaz they also have a super joker up their sleeve who can decide a game at any time from the bench and has also played some outstanding games in the last few weeks. Not the worst conditions to go to a Clásico or a final. And it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that Bellingham decided such a game with a (late) goal.