Lebanese presidential elections: wait until the last minute

The most notable feature of the Lebanese presidential elections is that presidential aspirants do not bother to campaign or even present an electoral program. Moreover, they are not even obliged to announce their candidacy in the first place.

The irony is that although members of parliament are the ones who elect the president, this president is often not affiliated with any particular parliamentary bloc, especially in the era after the Taif Agreement, which put an end to the civil war in 1990.

Most of the time, no parliamentary political group is able to secure the required number of votes to elect the president, in light of a system in which it is difficult for any party, regardless of its representative size, to fully impose its choices on the other parties.

According to Lebanese custom, the President of the Republic is supposed to be exclusively a Maronite Christian, making Lebanon the only Arab country headed by a Christian.

What complicates the scene is the absence of a dominant force, internally or externally, capable of imposing its choice and forcing those who refuse to concede – a situation that has been in place for about two years and three months, and which hinders the election of a president to succeed Michel Aoun, whose term ended on October 31, 2022.

It is also what delayed the appointment of a new session to elect the President of the Republic for more than a year and a half since the last election session last June, which failed, like its predecessors, to elect a president. The reliance was on a variable that would break the political clash in one direction or another.

The last war came between Hezbollah and Israel, in which the party suffered huge losses, led to massive destruction in several areas of the country, and made choosing a new president an essential step in the next stage in and for the country.

In this context, anticipation seems to be the dominant situation, even hours before the election session, despite the name of the current army commander, Joseph Aoun, being prominent.

But Aoun’s election faces several obstacles, the most prominent of which is the constitutional obstacle.

According to Article 49 of the Lebanese Constitution: “Judges, employees of the first category, and their equivalent in all public administrations and public institutions, and other legal persons under public law may not be elected for the period of their performance of their job and during the two years following the date of their resignation and actual cessation of their job or the date of their referral to retirement.”

Therefore, the current army commander cannot be elected without a constitutional amendment that allows this condition to be bypassed.

However, one of the solutions proposed for this is to consider the election of Joseph Aoun in the first session – that is, with two-thirds of the number of representatives – as an implicit vote on amending the constitution, which also requires a vote of two-thirds of the members of Parliament, that is, 86 votes out of a total of 128 votes.

But even if this matter is taken into account, as there is much controversy regarding its constitutionality, the problem may arise again if Aoun does not win the first round and wins the second round, which requires the candidate to obtain a normal majority, meaning half the number of representatives plus one, which is 65 votes.

In this case, the challenge to the constitutionality of his election will be much stronger, and this will raise massive controversy and may plunge the country into an additional crisis.

But Joseph Aoun is not the only name proposed, even if he is the only one whose election requires obtaining 86 votes, which is also the quorum required for the election session to be held in all its sessions.

Among the other names proposed are Jihad Azour, a former minister and director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund, as well as the former minister and lawyer, Ziad Baroud, the acting Director General of Public Security, Elias Al-Bisari, and others.

If Joseph Aoun is elected, he will be the fourth former army commander to assume the presidency of the republic in Lebanon, after the Taif Agreement in 1990.

The matter is not a mere coincidence, given that both positions are occupied by a Maronite Christian, according to custom.

But the current circumstance increases the symbolism of the army commander’s arrival to the presidency. Today, Lebanon is under the American microscope regarding the implementation of the cessation of hostilities agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, and there is great reliance on the army’s role in doing so.

The current army commander, Joseph Aoun, is considered one of the figures who has close relations with the Americans, who praise the role of the army and what it is doing so far within the framework of implementing the agreement.

The United States is considered the most prominent supporter of the Lebanese Army, and is the party that provides it with the greatest aid, despite the small total volume of this aid and not including any specific weapons. It also contributed in a previous stage to subsidizing the wages of its members.

The American presidential envoy, Amos Hochstein, who visited Lebanon at the beginning of the week, was quoted as saying that Joseph Aoun possesses the specifications required in the next stage, although he is not the only one with these specifications.

It also comes from an institution that is seen as inclusive, patriotic, above political divisions, and untainted by accusations of corruption.

In this context, most parliamentary blocs, even those that did not announce their support for him, say that they do not oppose his candidacy. Even Hezbollah announced through several of its officials that it had no “veto” against Aoun.

But matters will not mature unless a large number of representatives agree to elect him, which will not become clear until the final hours before the election session.

The effort made by Saudi Arabia and the presence of its envoy in Lebanon to accompany the election process was prominent, amid media reports that spoke of its explicit support for Aoun’s accession to the presidency.

The French presidential envoy for Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, is also in Lebanon, and is holding talks with various blocs hours before the session.

Regardless of whether or not Thursday’s session will result in the election of a president or the identity of the elected president, it comes under very delicate circumstances.

It is expected that his reign will witness the handling of many thorny issues. Starting with the reconstruction file after the massive destruction caused by the Israeli bombing, passing through the challenges of the situation on the southern border with Israel, and anticipating the changes that are happening in Syria, and not ending with beginning to address the massive financial and economic crisis in the country.

All of this is in light of the crystallization of new internal political relations linked to the outcomes and results of the war between Israel and Hezbollah.

In this context, the arrival of a president who enjoys external support is considered an essential issue to facilitate the country’s access to much-needed support and aid.

However, the first step is to be able to elect a president. After that, we will be able to agree on a new prime minister, which in itself may be another challenge.