The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | January 3 – 5, 2025
Week 1 | January 3 – 5, 2025
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 1, 2025: $70M — $100M
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Paramount Pictures | Week 3
Weekend Range: $18M – $22M
Pros
Welcome to the New Year in Box Office! Theater owners managed to stay alive until ’25, and are kicking the year off with three strong performers that will likely supercharge overall numbers far ahead of this same first frame of 2024, when sluggish holdovers Wonka and the second Aquaman were joined by modest genre flick Night Swim to take in less than $40M between them. Now we expect to see Sonic the Hedgehog 3 leading the pack for a third straight frame with a total in the low-$20M’s, with Mufasa and Nosferatu not that far behind with a potential trinity gross over $60M.
Cons
We are expecting another tight race between Sonic and Mufasa this frame. The holiday weekend results posted less than a million difference between them, then when Monday actuals reared their head it was Sonic with $37M and Mufasa with $36.8M, nearly a dead heat. Even though our forecast team is giving the edge to the hedgehog, it’s really anyone’s race as family audiences find themselves on either side of the divide with no clear preference as of now.
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 3
Weekend Range: $16M – $20M
Pros
Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King shot up like a rocket after its dicey debut, totaling +4% in frame 2 over frame 1, plus winning the overall 5-Day holiday derby against Sonic. The comeback was certainly a welcome one for the House of Mouse, the #1 studio which closed out the year strong on this title with a $120.8M total while also reaping the rewards overseas where it has nearly doubled that money ($214.2M). As we mentioned it could shoot to #1 this weekend, and even if it doesn’t we expect Mufasa to leg it out in the Top 5 similar to 2024’s Wonkawhich spent nine weeks between first and fourth place. With Wicked now having launched on Digital (with the sing-along version to boot) that puts a little air back in the room for other family titles.
-Cons
While Mufasa has decent mojo now, it’s still behind Sonic on the domestic front, where the blue blur sports $136.5M. Then there’s the budget issue, with Disney spending a reported $200M on the Lion King prequel plus P&A, so it will be a long road to the black even with foreign factored in for a current global total of $335.1M. Disney also continues to compete against itself, with Moana 2 ($18.9M last frame at #5) not expected on home formats for at least another week or two. Still, with the business it did last week the studio can certainly hold its head high knowing ticket buyers have responded to this one, with downstream popularity yet to come.
3. Nosferatu
Focus Features | Week 2
Weekend Range: $10M – $14M
Pros
Early January is always a great time for the horror genre to shine. Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu remake has solid word-of-mouth mixed with awards potential to keep it going strong until Universal launches its other classic monster reimagining The Wolf Man on January 17. While Vertical will drop another wintery period horror thriller this frame, The Damned (84% on Rotten Tomatoes), that should not have a chilling effect on Nosferatuwhich could even place at #2 if circumstances allow it. Plus, the movie is making a wider international bow this week in major territories that should elevate its earnings profile.
Cons
While coming close to last weekend’s $21.6M gross remains a possibility, Nosferatu is more likely to end up on the bottom half of our forecast range. As its “B-” CinemaScore suggests, this is a fan/core-audience driven picture, with PostTrack showing 48% came for the horror genre itself. Eggers’ breakout horror movie The Witch dropped -42% in its second frame despite stellar reviews, and so could this movie. Even though Nosferatu did very well for an art house remake of a silent classic most general audiences have never seen, it’s telling that this take on the Dracula legend opened lower than Universal’s poorly-received Dracula Untold ($23.5M)… even with ten years of inflation between them. Eggers’ movie was always aimed at a slightly more refined crowd, but with a reported $50M budget and a wide release on nearly 3000 screens we’re not grading on a curve here.
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