Saturday Football Tips: Henderson’s card relish in Serie A

Liam Henderson: Carded once every 148 minutes in Serie A since the start of 2022/23

Empoli v GenoaSaturday 28 December, 14:00Live on OneFootball

This early kick-off in Serie A on Saturday should feature cards.

Empoli have committed more fouls than any other side in Italy’s top flight this season and sit ninth in terms of bookings received.

Genoa are up in fifth in the list and also sit in the top half of the fouls-committed table.

With the duo separated by only three points in the overall standings, it should be competitive too.

The referee is Antonio Rapuano and he’s the second strictest of the Serie A regulars this season in card terms, averaging 5.71 yellows per game. He’s also produced three reds in his seven games thus far.

Empoli have received over 1.5 cards in six of their last seven matches, while Genoa have delivered on the same front in their last eight.

Frankly, I’m surprised to be getting virtually even money about both teams receiving 1.5 cards here and that looks the best bet.

For something bigger, try adding Liam Henderson to be shown a card – that produces a Bet Builder approaching 5/1.

Empoli’s Scottish midfielder has received five cards in his 16 appearances this season, while he was also booked in three of his last five of last season when playing for Palermo in Serie B.

He’s got a great card record in the top flight, having picked up nine in 2022/23, meaning he’s been carded in 14 of his last 45 Serie A appearances.

Many of those have been from the bench so when you look at time on the pitch, Henderson has actually been carded once every 148 minutes.

Whichever metric you take, odds of 3/1 about another Henderson card look generous, particularly when taking the referee into account.

Back both teams over 1.5 cards and Liam Henderson to be shown a card @ around 5/1

Staked: 165pts Returned: 166.93pts P/L: +1.93pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts