Policy. Germany in difficulty, Europe waits to find its locomotive

Has Germany once again become, as in the early 2000s, the “sick man of Europe” – which, in its good days, is praised as the “locomotive of Europe”? The two expressions point out at least one obvious fact: the importance of the state of health of a country which is home to 19% of the population of the European Union and whose economy weighs nearly 27% of the euro zone – a country which, moreover, is located in the geographical center of the Union.

For the moment, Europe seems to be doing without Germany, at least without its chancellor. It is the Italian Giorgia Meloni who poses as Donald Trump's interlocutor at Notre-Dame de Paris, during a ceremony from which Olaf Scholz is absent. It is the Pole Donald Tusk who coordinates the discussions on Ukraine, recently emphasizing doing so with the leaders of France, the United Kingdom, the Baltic and Scandinavian countries – without even mentioning Germany.

Ursula and Manfred

However, Germans remain on the roof of Europe. Firstly, Ursula von der Leyen, reappointed as president of the European Commission with undivided power over her college of 26 commissioners. Secondly, Manfred Weber, president of the group of the European People's Party (EPP, center right), by far the first in parliament (188 deputies out of 720). It is this German-German tandem which will be in charge of the variable majorities over the next five years.

The current discretion of the German government is therefore not likely to last. The probable future chancellor resulting from the elections on February 23, Friedrich Merz, will be able to complete the tandem to form a trio of members of the CDU. He also displays a firm desire, unlike Olaf Scholz, to get involved in European issues – Donald Tusk recently received him in Warsaw, certain to find a more attentive ear at home on Ukraine than with the current chancellor.

Emmanuel et Friedrich ?

One question remains: can Germany once again become the locomotive of Europe without restarting the Franco-German “engine”? It is an understatement to say that he has the flu, and has been doing so for much longer than the political setbacks of the two governments. Question of people, of incompatibility between Macron-Jupiter and Scholzomat (so named for his robot brilliance), which could be attenuated with Merz, more brilliant. “Franco-German leadership has weakened, there is a leadership vacuum,” recently regretted former ECB President Mario Draghi. But I see no other leadership capable of leading Europe towards a common future. We must be patient and wait for the results of the German elections.” Europe is waiting.