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NFC playoff picture update: Lions maintain No. 1 spot despite loss

In Week 15, the Detroit Lions lost their first game since Week 2 of the 2024 season, falling to 12-2 on the year. While the Lions have already locked up a spot in the playoffs and still currently hold the No. 1 seed in the NFC, things have suddenly got a little tighter with three games remaining in the regular season.

Let’s update where the NFC playoff standings land, following the Lions’ loss to the Buffalo Bills.

NFC North standings:

  1. Lions: 12-2
  2. Vikings: 11-2 — Play the Bears on “Monday Night
  3. Packers: 9-4 — Play the Seahawks on “Sunday Night Football”

  4. Bears: 4-9 — Play the Vikings on “Monday Night Football”

While the rest of the NFC North still has to play their games, the NFC title will likely come down to the Lions and Vikings, as the Packers are nearly mathematically eliminated.

Regardless of the Vikings-Bears outcome, the Lions will remain in first place in the NFC North after Week 15 concludes. That’s because, even if the Vikings beat the Bears and even up their record at 12-2, the Lions hold the tiebreaker after winning the head-to-head battle earlier in the season.

Here’s a look at each team’s remaining schedule:

Lions:

  • at Bears (4-9)
  • at 49ers (6-7)
  • vs. Vikings (11-2)

Vikings:

  • vs. Bears (4-9) — on MNF
  • at Seahawks (8-5)
  • vs. Packers (9-4)
  • at Lions (12-1)

As far as the conference, the Lions’ loss tightens things up at the top, but they will also stay in first place in the NFC due to tiebreakers.

NFC Standings

  1. Lions: 12-2
  2. Eagles: 12-2
  3. Seahawks: 8-5 — Play the Packers on “Sunday Night Football”
  4. Buccaneers: 8-6

While the Lions and Eagles have identical records, they have not played each other head-to-head (the first tiebreaker), so we have to look to the team’s conference record to determine the second tie-breaker. The Lions are 8-1 versus NFC opponents, while the Eagles are 7-2, which is why the Lions stay in the No. 1 slot.

The Seahawks have a tough road down the stretch (games against the Packers, Vikings, Bears, and Rams) and they’ll have to be sharp with the Rams (remaining games: Jets, Cardinals, and Seahawks) nipping at their heels. The Bucs will be hoping for Seattle to lose if they want to move up a spot.

Here’s how the rest of the NFC looks heading into this week’s prime-time games.

Wild card race (top 3 advance):

5. Vikings: 11-2 (Play on MNF)
6. Packers: 9-4 (Play on SNF)
7. Commanders: 9-5
8. Rams: 8-6
9. Cardinals: 7-7
10. Falcons: 6-7 (Play on MNF)
11. 49ers: 6-8
12. Cowboys: 6-8

If the Packers beat the Seahawksthey stay at the No. 6 seed. Meanwhile, the Seahawks will drop down to the No. 8 spot, and the Rams will sit atop the NFC West (because the Rams won their previous head-to-head battle). However, the Rams will take the No. 4 spot and the Bucs will move into the No. 3 spot because the Rams and Bucs have not played, and the Bucs hold a 6-3 record vs. NFC opponents, while the Rams are 5-5.

If the Seahawks beat the PackersSeattle stays in the No. 3 spot, and the Commanders would jump Green Bay and move into the No. 6 seed because they have not met head-to-head and the Commanders have a 6-3 record against the NFC, while the Packers are currently 4-4 (and would be 4-5 in a loss to the Seahawks). The Packers would be in the No. 7 spot.

mock draftin'

13. Saints: 5-9
14. Bears: 4-9 (Play on MNF)
15. Panthers: 3-11
16. Giants: 2-12

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