“It is a coalition government, and not cohabitation, that François Bayrou will have to lead”

S9th Prime Minister of Emmanuel Macron, François Bayrou will he manage to overcome the four crises – budgetary, political, moral and social – into which France is sinking? The success and duration of his mandate, and by ricochet effect institutional stabilization, depend on the responses that the new tenant of Matignon will provide to these emergencies.

Unlike the short-lived government led by Michel Barnier, it is now a coalition government, and not one of cohabitation, that François Bayrou will have to lead. Indeed, the personal relationship he maintains with the President of the Republic and the decisive support he gave him during the 2017 campaign should give François Bayrou, unlike his predecessors under Macron, a few additional degrees of freedom. to free itself from presidential supervision.

Thus the spirit of the V^e Can the Republic be restored, he who gives the Prime Minister “the strength to govern”according to the expression of the historian Nicolas Roussellier. This force which implies a personality and an ability to grasp the balance of power in the National Assembly. Is this the hope once again placed by Emmanuel Macron in the centrist path? Faced with each crisis, François Bayrou will be forced to compromise, forcing him to take into account the results of previous legislative elections and the credibility of the options chosen. His personality alone will not be enough. First and foremost, he will have to find a majority to govern.

First, urgent challenge: resolve the dilemma between the demand for budgetary rigor and the satisfaction of the redistributive demands of the parliamentary left. Does centrism, as a political doctrine, consist only of finding a middle path at all times and in all circumstances? The path of passage for François Bayrou is narrow, because the failure of the budget vote would have the consequence of shaking the institutional system and leading to a regime crisis. And, an additional difficulty, the Socialist Party has included among its non-censorship conditions the renunciation of the use of article 49.3 of the Constitution.

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