On December 10, 2024, Météo France and Tracc – Reference warming trajectory for adaptation to climate change – published a report on tomorrow's climate. With various projections, they presented the possible scenarios in the different French regions.
2024 is already the hottest year on record and the worst is yet to come. Météo France and Tracc published a report on Tuesday which presents the different climate projections for which we should prepare. Drought, temperatures, rain… here is what to expect in the next 75 years in Occitania.
For these projections, Tracc produced several models: minimum, median, maximum. We will take ihere the median model with a perspective of global warming at + 4 °C, most likely scenario. Yves Tramblay, hydrologist at the IRD in Montpellier, who participated in the drafting of the IPCC, explains to us that if the temperature models are quite reliable, those concerning rainfall are uncertain.
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Droughts in perspective
What is certain, however, is that the heat will have consequences on the water retention in the soil, and therefore on drought. The latter is “mainly linked to the increase in evaporation, and to a lesser extent, to the decrease in precipitation”.
Rain helps irrigate the soil, provided it can stay there. With heat, evaporation increases and so does drought. In five years in Occitania, we will distinguish the first “hot spots”. Mainly inland, to the east, but also in the Pyrenees which, as we have seen in recent years, will suffer pics of temperature records.
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As for rainfall, “We think there is a downward trend but it is much less reliable as a forecast. On the other hand, even if precipitation remains at the current level, we will lose water at soil level. Because the Rising temperatures induce a sharp increase in evaporation. This is typical of what will happen in the Mediterranean region.
Heat peaks
Another certainty, explains Yves Tramblay, “we will have summers that are increasingly hot and dry, and which last longer. The summer as we know it today will extend from May to September-October.”
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From 2030, Occitanie will be generally warmer than the rest of France, like the Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur region. Aude, Tarn and the north of Haute-Garonne will be the most spared from heat peaks.
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By 2050, the number of hot days (+25°C) will explode. Fifty years later, periods of heatwaves will increase. In Gard and Hérault, days over 35°C will be recorded at least thirty times per year.
What consequences?
From 2050, these climatic events will result in “profound changes to the water cycle and an intensification of extreme events”.
In addition to the heat and its discomfort, the entire flora of the region will be impacted by this rise in temperatures. Agriculture will suffer from longer summers in favor of shorter winters. Changes that will disrupt the natural cycles of plants and weaken them.
How to limit the damage?
An increase of +4°C in France corresponds to global warming of 3°C. Tracc established this increase based on current climate policies. Concretely, to limit the damage, two processes must be combined, state the conclusions of the latest report of the IPCC : mitigation and adaptation.
First, we must mitigate. We must continue efforts to reduction of greenhouse gas emissions : limit the use of fossil fuels in transport and industry, meat consumption and freight in general. Focus on the insulation of homes and the optimization of work and living spaces. Slow down the upward trend in consumption: favor second-hand goods and recycling. Finally, focus on renewables in as many possible sectors of activity as possible.
Then you will have to adapt. As recommended by Pnacc (National Plan for adaptation to climate change), by implementing five major projects: the protection of populations, the resilience of territories, infrastructure and essential services, the adaptation of human activities, the protection of natural and cultural heritage and finally the mobilization of the nation's vital forces. A set of 51 measures which, in short, aims to protect the country from damage, essentially by prevention and innovation.
In terms of human activities, the increase in temperatures in Hérault, Gard and the Pyrénées-Orientales will force the large cities there to adapt to compensate for the effect. “heat island”. Besides that, urban air quality will deteriorate.
Each scenario presented in the report has a different answer. It would seem that the worst, at +8°C, is avoidable. Which is not the case for + 4°C. Less worse certainly, but very pessimistic all the same, and almost inevitable.
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