D-day for Macron, but he went to Poland

Emmanuel Macron must appoint a new prime minister at the end of the day on Thursday who will have the difficult task of seeking an agreement to survive longer than the short-lived Michel Barnier and have a budget adopted in a political landscape that is still fractured.

François Bayrou, the faithful centrist ally who has been biding his time for years and this time seems more favorite than ever? Or a Macronist minister? Or a personality from the left, to reward the new pledges given by the Socialist Party, certain deputies of which, including ex-president François Hollande, dub former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve at the last minute?

In any case, theoretically it is D-Day: the President of the Republic had promised a head of government on Tuesday afternoon “within 48 hours”. An oath made to the leaders of parties ranging from the PCF to the Les Républicains party, gathered at the Élysée in search of compromise, in the absence of the National Rally and La France insoumise.

However, the president, who for a time hoped to announce his choice on Wednesday evening, exactly a week after the historic censorship of the Barnier government, took off Thursday morning for a visit to Poland. Around 4 p.m., when his 48-hour deadline expires, he will be at the Warsaw Uprising Museum according to his schedule.

It was only when he returned at the end of the day that he could receive his candidate and reveal his name. Unless there is further delay from Emmanuel Macron who often has slow and laborious appointments.

“It’s stuck” because the president is seeking to ensure beforehand that the future executive will benefit from a “non-censorship pact” notably from the Socialist Party, or even the Ecologists, explains a relative, who fears that “it could be a vain hope. Informal contacts, direct or indirect, took place on Wednesday with these parties, without a clear outcome, according to an executive from the presidential camp.

François Bayrou has for a long time been proposing to the Head of State a government of key figures capable of convincing enough deputies, without waiting for a formal agreement between party leaders.

After the first secretary of the PS Olivier Faure on Wednesday, it was however the boss of the Ecologists Marine Tondelier who on Thursday rejected any nomination of the president of the MoDem, and even of Bernard Cazeneuve, because in her eyes they embody “the past”.

“The French want a little enthusiasm, momentum, breath, something new,” she said on France 2, calling on Emmanuel Macron “to get out of his comfort zone.”

At MoDem, we always want to be reasonably optimistic, believing that the left “cannot say anything other than that” but that ultimately Olivier Faure could agree not to censor a Bayrou government.

In the right wing of the macronie, the name of the centrist leader nevertheless raises eyebrows, and we would prefer the irremovable Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu, very close to the president, or his colleague Catherine Vautrin.

But it is especially among LR that François Bayrou arouses the most hostility. All day Wednesday, the corridors buzzed with a veto imposed by the former head of state Nicolas Sarkozy, who cannot digest the Bayrouist vote for François Hollande against him during the 2012 presidential election.

“Who among the Republicans still listens to Sarkozy?”, pretended to ask an ally of the centrist to brush aside this threat.

In any case, there is an emergency. The fall of Michel Barnier, overthrown by deputies during an unprecedented censorship since 1962, leaves the country without a budget for 2025.

A special bill to avoid state paralysis was presented to the Council of Ministers on Wednesday and is beginning its express parliamentary journey which should quickly allow its adoption. But it does not allow the renewal of many old or new provisions favorable to the French and businesses.

In the meantime, Michel Barnier has prepared his handover speech which will be brief, like his visit to Matignon, where he decided to plant a red maple to respect the tradition of all Prime Ministers.