Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Wednesday’s matchup between the New York Rangers and Buffalo Sabres.
Rangers vs. Sabres Odds
- New York Rangers Moneyline: -140
- Buffalo Sabres Moneyline: +120
- Puck Line: Rangers -1.5 (-210), Sabres +1.5 (+170)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -120, Under +100)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Rangers (14-13 SU, 10-17 ATS, 13-13-1 O/U)
This is the second meeting of the season between Buffalo and New York. The Sabres dominated the first game on Nov. 7, winning 6-1. While that loss didn’t start New York’s current skid, it may have been a warning sign. Since then, the Rangers are 6-10 straight-up and have lost eight of their last 10 games.
Not even Igor Shesterkin, who is 5-10 over his last 15 games, has been able to bail out the Rangers. It’s not entirely on him, though. New York ranks as the 10th-worst offensive team over the past month and has given Shesterkin more than three goals in just four of his last 11 starts. That said, the 28-year-old goaltender has been average at best, which isn’t enough given the circumstances. The Rangers are a poor defensive team, ranking 30th in expected goals against and shots against per 60 minutes over the last month. With below-average goaltending from Shesterkin, they’ve allowed more goals than all but two teams since Nov. 10. Shesterkin is likely to start on Wednesday.
One bright spot for the Rangers has been special teams. They have the 12th-best power play and the second-best penalty kill, but those strengths haven’t been enough to salvage a disappointing season.
Handicapping the Sabres (11-17 SU, 14-14 ATS, 14-10-4 O/U)
Buffalo isn’t in good form either, having lost seven games in a row, and nine of 14 games since blowing out the Rangers at Madison Square Garden earlier this month. The Sabres also rank among the bottom five teams in goals against over the last month, just one spot ahead of the Rangers. However, the Sabres have won four of their past six meetings against the Rangers, and they have similar peripherals.
According to Evolving Hockey, New York ranks 27th in expected goals percentage since Nov. 10, while Buffalo ranks 25th. The Sabres and Rangers also rank 18th and 19th, respectively, in shot share at even strength, despite Buffalo ranking 11th in shot attempt percentage and New York ranking 18th. Additionally, both teams rank among the bottom 10 in expected goals against, but there’s a significant gap between 26th and 32nd place.
While Buffalo currently grades out slightly better than New York defensively, offense is a concern. The Sabres and Rangers have scored roughly the same number of goals per 60 minutes over the last month, but although both teams rank among the top 10 in shot attempts per 60, New York ranks 21st in expected goals and Buffalo ranks 29th. The Sabres have the 12th-best penalty kill but rank 30th on the power play.
To make matters worse, Buffalo is still without its best defender, Rasmus Dahlin. He has missed the past three games due to back spasms, and his absence is a big reason the Sabres’ losing streak has extended to seven games.
Best Bets for Rangers vs. Sabres
- JJ Peterka Over 0.5 Points (-105) at Sports Interaction
Since collecting 16 points in his first 16 games, JJ Peterka has registered just one point (a goal) over his last 10 outings. However, given that Tage Thompson has scored four goals in four games since returning from a five-game absence, it’s only a matter of time until Peterka starts producing again playing alongside Thompson and Alex Tuch on the team’s top line. Peterka also has a spot on the team’s second power-play unit, which doesn’t hurt. Neither does the fact that he’s registered a point in six out of seven career games against the Rangers. With all that in mind, plus New York’s defensive struggles, this player prop is a good bet at -105 odds.
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