Marine Le Pen can smile. And everyone else, from left to right to center, is worried. As an Ifop-Fiducial poll has just shown, if the presidential election took place tomorrow, the leader of the RN deputies in the National Assembly would obtain between 36% and 38% in the first round. Certainly, there are still thirty months, or two and a half years, before the deadline of 2027, the date on which Emmanuel Macron will leave the Élysée. If, of course, La France insoumise's fantasy of an early presidential election does not come true.
But for now, this survey sounds like a warning. It confirms what the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States has proven: legal problems, even in a cascade, are no longer a hindrance. So what does it matter that, in the affair of the FN parliamentary assistants, the prosecution considers that Marine Le Pen's party has made the European Parliament its “cash cow”. While the judgment is expected on March 31, she nevertheless risks five years in prison, three of which will be suspended, a 300,000 euro fine and five years of ineligibility with provisional execution – that is to say with immediate application even in case of appeal. Clearly, if the judges were to follow these requisitions, she might not be able to present herself in 2027.
“Before thinking about 2027, we must above all prevent the country from falling into instability”
If Marine Le Pen now accuses the justice system of wanting her “political death”, she has not lost the mother of battles: that of victimization. And this survey will bring a little more grist to his formidable conspiracy mill. As for those who, without any shame, were moved by his possible ineligibility, for fear of losing their – supposedly – best opponent, let them quickly dry their duck pond crocodile tears: Jordan Bardella is far from being disqualified .
But above all, what is the point of already putting the presidential election into the debate? Isn't the priority to appoint a new Prime Minister and provide France with a budget? With the fall of Michel Barnier, thanks to the votes of the RN, which we remember did not hesitate to vote for the motion of censure from the left, we will live, for a few weeks, under the regime of a special finance law . Otherwise, there would be no continuity of the State. In light of the slippage in public finances, it is difficult to jump to the ceiling. Before thinking about 2027, we must above all prevent the country from falling into instability. This would be the best way to fight against extremes.
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