Atletico Madrid v Slovan Bratislava: How to get hot favourites onside at 6/4

Rodrigo de Paul provides the value in the shots markets

Atletico Madrid v Slovan BratislavaWednesday 11 December, 17:45Live on TNT Sports 3

I remember taking on Slovan a couple of weeks ago only for Milan to let me down, the Italians failing to win the first half that day.

My view on the Slovaks still stands though – they are one of the worst sides in the Champions League and that view is backed up by the standings.

Having lost five out of five so far, Slovan sit second bottom and have conceded more goals than any other side (18).

This trip to Madrid doesn’t come at a good time either.

After a slow start to the season, Atleti are buzzing right now, posting nine consecutive wins in all competitions, including a 6-0 hammering of Sparta Prague on matchday five of the Champions League.

Five clean sheets have been kept in those nine victories, while their most recent form shows they’ve scored 18 goals in their last four outings.

In short, the hosts should dominate.

Slovan have conceded 15+ shots in seven of their last eight UCL games this season, while they’ve given up huge amounts of possession.

Their possession percentage figures in their last four away games have been 36, 39, 40, 33, while they managed only 34% against Milan and 24% in a 4-0 home defeat to Manchester City.

With Atleti understandably short in so many markets, this is about finding a decent price.

6/4 will do – and here’s how I’m going to do it.

I’ll stick with the plan from that Milan game, backing Slovan to be behind at half time.

That’s occurred in all of their UCL games so far with the exception of that aforementioned Milan one.

I’ll also put a goal in both halves into the Bet Builder.

That’s occurred in all 10 Champions League games involving these sides this season and I’m certainly expecting Atleti to score in both halves.

The value comes in the shots market – as highlighted, there are likely to be a few from the home team.

With many players at short odds, I think the price to get in the bag is the 8/11 about Rodrigo de Paul having 1+ shot on target.

Since moved back into the centre of midfield, he’s managed to land this in his last four starts.

Those games have also produced two goals for the Argentine World Cup winner so you’d imagine he’ll be confident about having another go in a game which should see him have plenty of the ball.

Slovan have conceded 18 shots on target across their two away games so far, while even Slovenians Celje had nine against them in Slovan’s opening qualifier back in the summer.

De Paul can get involved on this front and help deliver a treble which pays around 6/4.

Back Atletico to win first half, a goal in both halves & Rodrigo de Paul 1+ shot on target @ around 6/4

Staked: 148pts Returned: 166.93pts P/L: +18.93pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts