Will Scotland have a white Christmas this year?

With just three weeks until Christmas Day, many Scots will be looking at the forecast hoping to see snow on the horizon.

The chances of a white Christmas are very rare, with the festive season being just at the beginning of the frosty period for most of the UK.

Unfortunately, this means Scots are more likely to see snow in January and February than in December.

The Met Office found that snow settles on the ground for an average of three days in December, compared to 3.3 days in January, 3.4 days in February, and 1.9 days in March.

White Christmases are not unheard of and were more frequent in the 18th and 19th centuries, but with higher average temperatures over land and sea through climate change, the chances have reduced.

The Met Office’s definition of a white Christmas is for one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of December 25.

It added that Dickensian scenes of widespread snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day are “much rarer”.

There has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground (where more than 40% of stations in the UK reported snow on the ground at 9 am) four times since 1960—in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.

Traditionally, the forecasters define a white Christmas using a single location in the country, but with increased interest, they now include sites like Aberdeen’s Pittodrie Stadium and Aberdeen FC, Edinburgh Castle, Coronation Street in Manchester, and the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.

Will Scotland have a White Christmas this year?

As for this year’s forecast, STV weather presenter Philip Petrie said there is still uncertainty over whether Scots will see any snowflakes on the big day.

Philip said the current long-range forecast suggests unsettled conditions with rain and showers, particularly in the northwest.

However, he added this could all change, saying: “Some of the showers have the signal of being wintry in nature, but mostly on higher ground, and temperatures likely to be around average.

“At the moment, it is still too early to say anything with any certainty, but we will be keeping a close eye over the next few weeks.”

The Met Office said it can accurately forecast if snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days beforehand.

When was the last white Christmas?

Technically, 2023 was the last white Christmas in the UK with 11% of stations recording snow falling, although none reported any snow lying on the ground.

Before that, the Met Office said that in 2022, 9% of weather stations recorded falling snow, but none had any snow settling.

2021 and 2020 were also technically white Christmases, with 6% of weather stations recording snow falling, but in these years, less than 1% of stations reported any snow lying on the ground in 2021 and only 4% in 2020.

The last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010, which the Met Office said was “extremely unusual”.

Not only was snow on the ground at 83% of stations (the highest amount ever recorded), but snow or sleet also fell at 19% of stations.