According to a new ranking established by T&E (Transport & Environment), 87% of airlines are neglecting the transition to alternative fuels, called SAF (sustainable aviation fuels). Out of 77 airlines assessed globally [1]only 10 are making notable efforts to transition from fossil kerosene to truly sustainable alternatives. The remaining 67 are either buying too little SAF, the wrong type of SAF, or are not considering SAF at all in their decarbonization plans.
The top three airlines in the ranking are Air France-KLM, United Airlines and Norwegian. Air France gains points because it already uses SAF via advanced biofuels and biofuels from waste (cooking oil). Air France-KLM is the only company to receive a B rating in the ranking with 61 points out of 100 possible. No company obtains the maximum grade (A).
Currently, the majority of airlines assessed (67 out of 77) are classified in category D, meaning that they have little or no SAF adoption, have significant gaps in climate action and that they often rely on a large quantity of biofuels produced from food crops and therefore unsustainable. This seriously questions their ability to tackle their impact on the climate.
E-kerosene, the most sustainable SAF
Not all SAFs are created equal. E-kerosene – made from renewable electricity – is the only type of SAF whose production level can be sustainably increased to meet the growing needs of the aviation sector. In contrast, the sustainability and availability of SAF made from biomass (biofuels) varies considerably.
Thus, SAF made from food or feed crops (e.g. corn) are not sustainable at all. Several criteria were therefore taken into account for the ranking of airlines: objectives for incorporating SAF and e-kerosene, types of fuel purchased and commitment to e-kerosene through agreements. purchase, letters of intent and memorandums of understanding.
Currently, most airlines use the wrong type of SAF. E-kerosene represents less than 10% of signed SAF agreements, while unsustainable biofuels based on corn grains and soybean oil represent more than 30% [2]. Airlines need to do more to incentivize fuel producers to prioritize the right types of raw materials, T&E says.
“Very few airlines are committed to using truly sustainable fuels – Air France is one of the few, regrets Jérôme du Boucher, aviation manager at T&E France. The majority of them buy the wrong types of fuel or, worse yet, don't buy SAF at all. Airlines must change this situation by banging their fist on the table. They must quickly make their fuel suppliers understand that what they sell them will not make their flights more environmentally friendly. Otherwise, they will be able to say goodbye to their goal of net zero emissions.”
Historical oil producers facing their responsibilities
Incumbent oil producers are not investing enough in the transition to sustainable fuels. According to T&E analysis based on current projects, Eni, TotalEnergies, Shell, BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Sinopec and Saudi Aramco could cumulatively produce only 3 Mt of SAF per year by 2030, or less than 3 % of their current production dedicated to aviation.
Worse still, virtually none of their SAF investments are in e-kerosene. Shell recently pulled out of an e-jet fuel project, reflecting the industry's reluctance to truly change by continuing to prioritize investments in fossil fuels. On the one hand, the tiny quantities of SAF produced by major oil companies are biobased fuels that are neither sustainable nor capable of supporting high demand. On the other hand, the e-kerosene market is currently dominated by small refiners and start-ups, which do not have the financial capacity to produce enough to meet the needs of the mass market in the long term.
“Oil companies are the missing piece of the puzzle in the sustainable fuels ecosystem. They have gone unnoticed until now, but their reluctance to invest in SAF is compromising the transition of the entire sector. Regulators must be tougher and ensure that the oil majors invest in SAF, while developing a European industrial strategy for e-kerosene, in order to support this nascent industry with adequate financing and regulatory measures. The Clean Industrial Deal offers a unique opportunity to address these issues and encourage the production of e-kerosene” says Jérôme du Boucher.
The SAF market has not yet taken off
The use of SAF worldwide is very low. In 2023, airlines included in the ranking consumed more than 1.6 billion barrels of fossil kerosene, compared to just 2.6 million barrels of SAF (less than 0.15% of total kerosene consumption). The analysis shows that, for now, they have signed contracts to purchase SAF to meet only 1.2% of their fuel needs by 2030.
But adoption of these fuels varies widely across regions of the world. North American airlines included in the ranking will use 2.7% SAF in 2030, while their European counterparts will reach 1.3%. But this share is likely to increase due to EU and UK legislation mandating the increasing use of SAF after 2030.
Given the small quantities of SAF purchased so far, the reduction in emissions they will bring about will not offset the sector's overall emissions growth. For the 77 airlines ranked in the study, the planned SAF volumes will only result in a 0.9% reduction in CO emissions2eq in 2030. But as European airlines purchase higher quality SAF, they are expected to reduce their emissions more significantly than North American airlines.
Notes to editors
[1] To compile the ranking, T&E selected the world's largest airlines (in terms of passenger numbers and fuel consumption) and smaller airlines with SAF purchasing agreements. These 77 airlines are responsible for approximately 75% of global jet fuel consumption.
[2] In Europe, legislation (ReFuel EU) prohibits the use of so-called “first generation” (1G) biofuels, derived from food or fodder crops. It also forces fuel suppliers to incorporate more and more synthetic fuels into their production. This is not necessarily the case elsewhere in the world.
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