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How Michel Barnier let himself be caught in the net of the RN

Marine Le Pen, at the National Assembly, in , December 2, 2024. JULIEN MUGUET FOR “THE WORLD”

Did he really believe it? This Monday, December 2, when Michel Barnier steps forward to the podium of the National Assembly, his hopes of “raise the horizon line in 2025”, as he liked to say, to establish itself as “reformer” of a country in disarray, vanish. The Prime Minister, looking phlegmatic and resigned, has just held his government responsible for having the Social Security budget adopted without a vote in Parliament, via article 49.3 of the Constitution. With this gesture, the 73-year-old former European commissioner is undoubtedly living his last moments at the head of Matignon.

Read also | Live, 2025 budget: the Barnier government on reprieve after resorting to 49.3, two motions of censure filed by the RN and the left, follow the reactions

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Just two months after stating his general policy declaration, here he is under the threat of a motion of censure. The suspense is thin. The National Rally (RN) is committed to voting with the left, gathered within the New Popular Front (NFP, environmentalists, socialists and “rebels”), to overthrow the government within forty-eight hours. “No scenario is being played out at this stage! It cannot and must not stop at the hold-up by Marine Le Pen, who does not know how to get out of the bank”, we wanted to believe in Matignon, on Monday evening.

An about-face by the far right remains possible, as does a division of the left at the key moment of the vote. But no one, among Michel Barnier's allies and opponents, imagines that the former European commissioner could escape the inglorious destiny of being the most ephemeral prime minister of the Ve Republic. The person himself seems to have prepared his exit by delivering, from the Palais-Bourbon, a speech promising his adversaries to be accountable to history. At a time when the country could plunge “in unknown territory”we live “a moment of truth which confronts everyone with their responsibilities”, he points out, sure that “the French would not forgive us for preferring particular interests to the general interest”.

“He had not measured the extent of the danger”

Since his arrival at Matignon, Michel Barnier has, according to his office, “lucid” about his situation. “He knows from the start that the day the RN presses the button, it’s over”said one of his advisors. But the tenant of Matignon, accustomed to tough negotiations, seems to have thought, until the last moments, that the far-right leader was calling the bluff. “He discovers the situation. He had not measured the extent of the danger”observes, disappointed, Prisca Thevenot, MP for Hauts-de-Seine (Renaissance).

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