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The Prime Minister activated 49.3 this Monday, December 2, triggering a motion of censure tabled by the left. La Dépêche du Midi details what could happen in the days to come
This Monday, December 2, the National Assembly should have debated the hotly contested PLFSS, the Social Security budget. But, Michel Barnier, faithful to his announcements, decided otherwise by drawing the 49.3. From the perch, he imposed his text, immediately triggering the anger of the opposition.
As it had announced, the New Popular Front (NFP) responded immediately by filing a motion of censure. A move which, this time, could well prove fatal for the government. With a National Rally (RN) ready to vote for this censorship, Michel Barnier's days at Matignon could be numbered.
The vote on the motion of censure will take place on December 4
Once filed, the motion of censure must be signed by at least one tenth of the deputiesor 58 parliamentarians. And the NFP has far exceeded this threshold. The procedure then provides for a period of 48 hours before the National Assembly decides. Which sets the crucial date for Wednesday December 4.
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DIRECT. Social Security Budget: Michel Barnier activates article 49.3, the RN announces that it will vote on the motion of censure
For this motion of censure to bring down the government, it will need to achieve an absolute majority, i.e. 289 votes. On paper, it is a challenge… except that the National Rally (RN) has decided to join forces with those of the left as Marine Le Pen indicated this Monday.
Wednesday will therefore be decisive. If the motion of censure passes, Michel Barnier could become the first Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic to be overthrown after a 49.3 since Georges Pompidou in 1962. In this case, his government will have to resign and the budget will not be voted on. If the motion fails, the text on the PLFSS will be adopted and Michel Barnier will remain at Matignon.
However, he would not have gotten out of the woods. Of the Wednesdaythe end-of-management finance bill for 2024 in turn arrives at the Assembly. Rebelote: the government's 49.3 seems inevitable for the moment, as does the motion of censure which would follow on Friday. If this new trap is avoided, the equation will be the same on Wednesday, December 18 for the examination of the finance bill. Here again, the executive risks having to force its way and expose itself to censorship two days later.
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