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Why Myanmar's travel-hesitant leader could be hard to stop

The International Criminal Court prosecutor seeks an arrest warrant for Myanmar's ruler and military chief, Min Aung Hlaing, for crimes against humanity in the alleged persecution of the Rohingya, the world's most stateless population. numerous in the world.

Below is some information about Min Aung Hlaing, his alleged crimes and his reaction.

ALLEGED ATROCITIES

More than 730,000 Rohingya fled Myanmar to Bangladesh to escape a military offensive in August 2017, when Min Aung Hlaing was military leader under a civilian-led government. UN investigators described the campaign as a “classic example of ethnic cleansing”, citing widespread atrocities including massacres, sexual violence and the destruction of villages.

At the time, the Myanmar government denied the allegations, saying security forces were carrying out legitimate operations against the militants.

According to the ICC, more than a million Rohingya have fled Myanmar's Rakhine state since the crackdown, mainly to Bangladesh, where they live in poverty in what is the world's largest refugee camp. Every year, thousands of people embark on dangerous journeys on rickety boats to try to reach Muslim-majority countries Malaysia and Indonesia.

Their situation in Rakhine State remains precarious, with the Rohingya caught in a civil war that has raged across Myanmar since Min Aung Hlaing's coup in 2021, as the army battles rebels from Arakan Army.

A panel of three ICC judges must decide whether there are “reasonable grounds” to believe that the general, now president and prime minister, bears criminal responsibility for the deportation and persecution of Rohingya in Myanmar and Bangladesh .

TRAVELS LIMITED

In a statement to Reuters, Myanmar's junta said the country was not a member of the court and did not recognize its statements. A similar statement was later published in local media and pro-military social media.

The junta's newspaper, the Global New Light of Myanmar, did not mention the ICC prosecutor's move, but published a front-page story about Min Aung Hlaing's meeting with the national finance commission to discuss the economy.

Min Aung Hlaing's travel in Myanmar has been limited and unannounced, as fighting intensifies and rebels seize more towns under junta control.

The most likely way to serve a possible arrest warrant would be abroad, but Min Aung Hlaing, 68, rarely travels abroad. As Myanmar's leader, he has mostly visited the country's closest allies, with three trips to Russia and one to China for a subregional summit.

He visited Indonesia in April 2021, two months after the coup, for an emergency meeting of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders to address the bloody crisis unfolding in Myanmar.

ASEAN has proposed a five-step plan to end hostilities. Min Aung Hlaing told the leaders he would pay “special attention to constructive suggestions.” Myanmar has since been excluded from ASEAN summits for failing to comply with the plan.

The general visited Russia, one of his army's main arms suppliers, three times in the first two years after the coup.

His last trip abroad was in November, for a summit in China, where he met the leaders of Cambodia and Thailand, as well as the Chinese prime minister, who pledged to support his plan for elections in Myanmar next year and called for an end to fighting on the border between the two countries.

David Mathieson, an independent analyst who tracks developments in Myanmar, said an arrest warrant would have “minimal impact” because the countries the general usually visits are not members of the ICC.

REACTION

Agnès Callamard, secretary general of Amnesty International, said Min Aung Hlaing had been “at the center of multiple human rights disasters” and that the issuance of an arrest warrant was a decisive step.

“The cycle of impunity in Myanmar must be broken now,” she said in a statement.

The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, a group of independent experts, said the ICC prosecutor's announcement could not come sooner.

“Impunity for the perpetrators of the most serious crimes under international law continues to prevail in Myanmar. This impunity continues to fuel devastating violence,” he said.

Duwa Lashi La, acting president of Myanmar's National Unity Shadow Government, said he welcomed the announcement.

“It confirms what the people of Myanmar, especially the Rohingya, have known for a long time […]. Now accountability must follow,” he said on X.

China's Foreign Ministry said the ICC should be “just and equitable” and exercise its functions “cautiously.”

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