Political crisis: we explain why the government could fall next week and what the consequences would be

The 2025 budget is made up of three texts tabled by the government: the finance bill (PLF), the end-of-management finance bill (PLFG) and the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) .

Use of section 49.3

The new version of the PLFSS 2025 must be debated this Monday, December 2 at 3 p.m. in the National Assembly in a joint committee. Michel Barnier could then, “at any time”trigger article 49 paragraph 3 of the Constitution. “If he is convinced that whatever efforts are made to reach a consensus there will be no agreement, he will trigger 49.3”explains the Montpellier jurist and constitutionalist Dominique Rousseau.

Article 49.3 of the Constitution authorizes the government to adopt the text without a vote, but therefore allows oppositions to file a motion of censure.

Will the government fall?

The risk for the government is that an alliance emerges between the New Popular Front (NFP) and the National Rally (RN) which would then become the majority. They could then file a motion of censure: “If it is passed, the budget would be rejected and in turn, the government would fall and would therefore have to resign”specifies Dominique Rousseau.

However, if the government is overthrown by the motion of censure, it would remain in place: “This would be a resigning government whose sole mission would be to return current affairs to the Gabriel Attal model in July until a new government is appointed”indicates the lawyer.

France in uncertainty

In this scenario, Emmanuel Macron will have to start looking for a new government again “who could have a majority and broader parliamentary support than that of Michel Barnier”, specifies Dominique Rousseau. A new budget would then have to be presented and adopted by the National Assembly.

During this time, the French people would remain in total uncertainty according to the constitutionalist: “Uncertainty about the way in which France will be managed in the coming year, since we will have no visibility, no information on what taxes, what expenses, what public services….”

What possible scenarios?

The scenario of a reappointment of Michel Barnier is also entirely possible, confirms Dominique Rousseau: “This is what De Gaulle did in 1962 because Pompidou had been overthrown. Charles de Gaulle had renamed Georges Pompidou simply to expedite current affairs.”

However, the constitutionalist is not “not at all convinced” that the government be overthrown: “I could be wrong of course, but I don't think the Barnier government will be overthrown on the budget. Marine Le Pen is scary, threatening censorship but I'm not sure it will come to fruition.”

Michel Barnier could escape the censorship of 49.3 by choosing to let the debate take place: “If after 70 days (around December 20) the budget has not been adopted, the government can invoke article 47 of the Constitution.”

This article, which does not result in a motion of censure, will allow Michel Barnier to execute the budget by order.